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Forecasting the Peak of Novel Coronavirus Disease in Egypt Using Current Confirmed Cases and Deaths

Anwar, W. A.; AbdelHafez, A. M.

2020-06-03 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.31.20118182 medRxiv
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The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Egypt was reported on 14 February 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased daily. The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation of Covid-19 in Egypt and to predict the expected timing of the peak of this epidemic using current confirmed cases and deaths. We used one of the online tools; the Epidemic Calculator that utilizes, the well-known SEIR compartmental model. We utilized the daily reports published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health & Population from 14 February to 11 May 2020. Given the highest calculated case fatality rate (7.7%), the number of hospitalized individuals is expected to peak in the middle of June with a peak of hospitalized cases of 20,126 individuals and total expected deaths 12,303. We recommend strengthening of the Egyptian preventive and control measures so as to decrease the CFR and the number of cases to the least possible as we approach the epidemic peak. It is most important that appropriate quarantine measures are retained., the quarantine measures should not be relaxed before the end of June, 2020.

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