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Is India heading towards a new high? : An optimistic approach to estimate ending life-cycle and cumulative cases by the end of the major COVID-19 pandemic wave in India and some of its states.

2020-06-02 health policy Title + abstract only
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Projecting the COVID-19 curve parameters such as ending-lifecycle and cumulative cases are helpful in guiding the policy makers to mitigate the outbreak. However, overestimating these parameters may put the public and policy makers in a muddle. In this paper, an optimistic scenario is simulated, wherein the dynamics of the COVID-19 curve is allowed to spread to such an extent that the projections of the COVID-19 parameters do not take excessively high values. Based on this scenario, the ending l...

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