Is India heading towards a new high? : An optimistic approach to estimate ending life-cycle and cumulative cases by the end of the major COVID-19 pandemic wave in India and some of its states.
Gupta, D. P.; Sharma, P. K. K.; Joshi, P. S. D.; Goyal, D. S.
Show abstract
Projecting the COVID-19 curve parameters such as ending-lifecycle and cumulative cases are helpful in guiding the policy makers to mitigate the outbreak. However, overestimating these parameters may put the public and policy makers in a muddle. In this paper, an optimistic scenario is simulated, wherein the dynamics of the COVID-19 curve is allowed to spread to such an extent that the projections of the COVID-19 parameters do not take excessively high values. Based on this scenario, the ending life-cycle and cumulative cases for India and some of its states, are predicted. Our study, suggests that the fall of the peak amplitude (95%) of the major COVID-19 wave in India may take place by the 8th of September 2020 with a total count of 655000 cases. Simulation results, also indicate that Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan may end up with 263700, 18140, 50600, 21130, 24420, 44170, 27080, and 28200 cumulative cases respectively.
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