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Pitting the Gumbel and logistic growth models against one another to model COVID-19 spread

Bekker, A.; Yoo, K.; Arashi, M.

2020-05-26 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.05.24.20111633 medRxiv
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In this paper, we investigate briefly the appropriateness of the widely used logistic growth curve modeling with focus on COVID-19 spread, from a data-driven perspective. Specifically, we suggest the Gumbel growth model for behaviour of COVID-19 cases in European countries in addition to the United States of America (US), for better detecting the growth and prediction. We provide a suitable fit and predict the growth of cases for some selected countries as illustration. Our contribution will stimulate the correct growth spread modeling for this pandemic outbreak.

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