Back

A phenomenological algorithm for short-range predictions of the Covid-19 pandemics 2020

Chrusciel, P. T.; Szybka, S. J.

2020-05-26 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.22.20098350 medRxiv
Show abstract

We present an algorithm for dynamical fitting of a logistic curve to the Covid-19 epidemics data, with fit-parameters linearly evolving to the future. We show that the algorithm would have given reasonable short- and medium-range predictions for the mid-range evolution of the epidemics for several countries. We introduce the double-logistic curve, which provides a very good description of the epidemics data at any given time of the epidemics. We analyse the predictability properties of some naive models.

Matching journals

The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
23.4%
2
Scientific Reports
○ 3102 papers in training set
Top 5%
10.5%
3
PLOS ONE
● 4510 papers in training set
Top 26%
6.6%
4
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1633 papers in training set
Top 11%
3.2%
5
Royal Society Open Science
● 193 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
3.2%
6
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
● 16 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.5%
7
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
2.2%
50% of probability mass above
8
Frontiers in Physics
○ 20 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
2.2%
9
Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology
○ 25 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
2.2%
10
Biology
○ 43 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
2.2%
11
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
○ 84 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.8%
12
Journal of Clinical Medicine
○ 91 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.7%
13
Journal of Mathematical Biology
○ 37 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.5%
14
Mathematics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.4%
15
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.4%
16
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 126 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.3%
17
Physical Review E
● 95 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.3%
18
Journal of Theoretical Biology
○ 144 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.3%
19
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.2%
20
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 84 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.0%
21
Computers in Biology and Medicine
○ 120 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.0%
22
F1000Research
○ 79 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.9%
23
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
● 2130 papers in training set
Top 40%
0.9%
24
Physical Biology
○ 43 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.8%
25
Nature Communications
○ 4913 papers in training set
Top 61%
0.8%
26
IEEE Access
● 31 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
0.8%
27
Communications Biology
○ 886 papers in training set
Top 22%
0.8%
28
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 50 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.8%
29
Quantitative Biology
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.7%
30
Archives of Clinical and Biomedical Research
○ 28 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.7%