Super spreader cohorts and covid-19
Van Esch, P.
Show abstract
A simple two-cohort SIR like model can explain the qualitative behaviour of the logarithmic derivative estimations of the covid-19 epidemic evolution as observed in several countries. The model consists of a general population in which the R0 value is slightly below 1, but in which a super-spreading small subgroup with high R0, coupled to the general population, is contaminating a significant fraction of the population. The epidemic starts to slow down when herd immunity is reached in this subgroup. The dynamics of this system is quite robust against non-pharmaceutical measures.
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