Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic Severity in Asia
Aviv-Sharon, E.; Aharoni, A.
Show abstract
Four months into the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this work provides a simple and direct projection of the outbreak spreading potential and the pandemic cessation dates in China, Iran, the Philippines and Taiwan, using the generalized logistic model (GLM). The short-term predicted number of cumulative COVID-19 cases matched the confirmed reports of those who were infected across the four countries, suggesting GLM as a valuable tool for characterizing the transmission dynamics process and the trajectory of COVID-19 pandemic along with the impact of interventions.
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