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When strong mitigation against a pandemic backfires

Chaigneau, P.

2020-05-19 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.13.20100628 medRxiv
Show abstract

I introduce social feasibility constraints in a SIR epidemiological model: at any point in time, the ability of a social planner to impose mitigation measures is limited, but it is increasing in the proportion of infected individuals. When considering threshold policies with constant levels of mitigation for a time period, the overall fatality rate in the population is non-monotonic in the levels of mitigation: higher levels of mitigation can increase the overall fatality rate. Intuitively, strong mitigation at a point in time can undermine the social feasibility of future mitigation. O_QD"When the economists talk the trade-off talk, lots of epidemiologists (and others) find it morally reprehensible when people are dying." Noah Feldman, Bloomberg, April 2 2020. C_QD

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