COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan: Stages and Recommendations
Saif, F.
Show abstract
We present a real-time forecast of COVID-19 in Pakistan that is important for decision-making to control the spread of the pandemic in the country. The study helps to develop an accurate plan to eradicate the COVID-19 by taking calculated steps at the appropriate time, that are crucial in the absence of a tested medicine. We use four phenomenological mathematical models, namely Discrete Exponential Growth model, the Discrete Generalized Growth model, the Discrete Generalized Logistic Growth, and Discrete Generalize Richards Growth model. Our analysis explains the important characteristics quantitatively. The study leads to understand COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan in three evolutionary stages, and provides understanding to control its spread in the short time domain and in the long term domain. For the reason the study is helpful in devising the measures to handle the emerging threat of similar outbreaks in other countries.
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