Mobility trends provide a leading indicator of changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission
Miller, A. C.; Foti, N. J.; Lewnard, J. A.; Jewell, N. P.; Guestrin, C.; Fox, E. B.
Show abstract
Determining the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is paramount for the design and deployment of effective public health policies. Incorporating Apple Maps mobility data into an epidemiological model of daily deaths and hospitalizations allowed us to estimate an explicit relationship between human mobility and transmission in the United States. We find that reduced mobility explains a large decrease in the effective reproductive number (RE) attained by April 1st and further identify state-to-state variation in the inferred transmission-mobility relationship. These findings indicate that simply relaxing stay-at-home orders can rapidly lead to outbreaks exceeding the scale of transmission that has occurred to date. Our findings provide quantitative guidance on the impact policies must achieve against transmission to safely relax social distancing measures.
Matching journals
The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US 95%
- Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies 95%
- Population-Level Associations in the Spread of Co-Circulating Respiratory Viruses: A Multi-Method Statistical Investigation Using Incidence Data 94%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Public Mobility Data Enables COVID-19 Forecasting and Management at Local and Global Scales 95%
- Genetic determination of regional connectivity in modelling the spread of COVID-19 outbreak for improved mitigation strategies 94%
- Examining face-mask usage as an effective strategy to control COVID-19 spread 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Estimating the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 during periods of high, low and zero case incidence 95%
- Disentangling the rhythms of human activity in the built environment for airborne transmission risk: a large-scale analysis of mobility data 95%
- Estimation and worldwide monitoring of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 94%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.