Cast away on Mindoro island: population dynamics of the critically endangered tamaraw (Bubalus mindorensis) at Mounts Iglit-Baco Natural Park

Endangered species, despite often living at low population densities, may undergo unexpected density-dependent feedbacks in the case of successful recovery or marked reduction in range. Because density-dependence dynamics can increase risk of extinction, these effects can hamper conservation efforts. In this study, we analyse the dynamics of the largest population of the tamaraw (Bubalus mindorensis), a critically endangered ungulate species endemic to Mindoro island, Philippines. The population is located within a < 3,000 ha area in Mounts Iglit-Baco Natural Park, with limited expansion possibilities. We took advantage of a 21 year time series of tamaraw counts to estimate annual population growth rate and possible density-dependence, accounting for sampling errors in the counts. The tamaraw population has been increasing at an average rate of +5% per year, as would be expected given its protected status by law. Population growth showed strong spatial structuring, with a population growth close to +10% in the core area of protection, and a reduction of abundance of -5% at the periphery of its range, inside the protected area. This range constriction is concerning because our best population dynamics model suggests significant negative density-dependence (Bayes factor = 0.9). The contraction of tamaraw range is likely caused by anthropogenic pressures forcing the species to live at relatively high densities in the core zone where protection is most effective, creating source-sink dynamics. Our study highlights the fact that, despite the continuous population growth over the last two decades, the long-term viability of the Mounts Iglit-Baco Natural Park tamaraw population remains uncertain.