The Past, Present and Future of Elephant Landscapes in Asia
de Silva, S.; Wu, T.; Thieme, A.; Johnson, J.; Nyhus, P.; Wadey, J.; Vu, T.; Mossbrucker, A.; Neang, T.; Chen, B. S.; Songer, M.; Leimgruber, P.
Show abstract
Habitat loss drives species declines worldwide, but is seldom quantified over centennial timescales. We constructed ecological niche models for Asian elephants based on land-use change between 850-2015, and predictions under six different climate/socioeconomic scenarios from 2015-2099. We find that over 64% of suitable natural habitat across diverse ecosystems was lost over the past three centuries. Average patch size dropped 83% from approximately 99,000 km2 to 16,000 km2 and the area occupied by the largest patch decreased 83% from ~ 4 million km2 (45% of area) to 54,000 km2 (~7.5% of area). Over half of current elephant range appears unsuitable. Habitat availability is predicted to decline further this century across all scenarios. The most severe losses occur under RCP3.4-SSP4, representing mid-range emissions but high regional inequities. We conclude that climate change mitigation measures must include policies to ensure inter-regional socioeconomic equity to safeguard landscapes for elephants, humans, and other species.
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