Back

COVID-19 data analysis and modeling in Palestine

Abdeljaoued-Tej, I.

2020-04-29 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.24.20078279 medRxiv
Show abstract

We estimate an actual number of infected cases in Palestine based on the 18-day effect from infection to death. We find that the number of cases in April 22 varies between 506 and 2 026 infected cases. We also focus on the reproductive number in Palestine based on population dynamics with two SEIR models. Dataset is from 5 March to 22 April 2020. With a transmission rate equal to 4.55 10-6, on May 22, the simulations predict 11 014 total infected cases in the optimistic scenario and 113 171 in the worst one. The crest of the pandemic is from 22 to 27 May 2020. The reproductive number [R]0 is equal to 1.54 for a fixed fraction of 0.6 of symptomatic cases that are reported and for a removal rate of 7. Palestinian COVID-19 mortality number is equal to 6 per million. It is small compared to countries neighboring Palestine. The infected number is equal to 88.4 per million, which is less than most of its neighbors. The basic reproduction number is still greater than 1. Changes to the transmission rate (over time) would be advisable, to fall [R]0 below the critical threshold.

Matching journals

The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
23.7%
Similar papers in this journal
2
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
8.3%
Similar papers in this journal
3
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 20%
8.3%
Similar papers in this journal
4
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 8%
4.3%
Similar papers in this journal
5
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
2.6%
Similar papers in this journal
6
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
○ 92 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
2.6%
7
Royal Society Open Science
● 214 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.5%
50% of probability mass above
8
Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology
○ 29 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
2.2%
9
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 129 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.0%
10
Quantitative Biology
○ 12 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.8%
11
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.8%
12
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.6%
13
Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.6%
14
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
● 235 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.5%
15
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.4%
16
Mathematical Biosciences
○ 49 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
1.2%
17
Viruses
○ 332 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.2%
18
Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.2%
19
PeerJ
◐ 308 papers in training set
Top 7%
1.2%
20
Mathematics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.2%
21
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 49%
1.2%
22
BMC Public Health
○ 158 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.1%
23
Journal of Theoretical Biology
○ 162 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.1%
24
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
● 23 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
1.1%
25
eLife
● 5828 papers in training set
Top 62%
1.1%
26
PLOS Global Public Health
● 344 papers in training set
Top 7%
0.9%
27
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
0.9%
28
Journal of Medical Virology
○ 140 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.6%
29
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
● 2444 papers in training set
Top 43%
0.6%
30
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.