COVID-19 Fatality and Comorbidity Risk Factors among Confirmed Patients in Mexico
Solis, P.; Carreno, H.
Show abstract
As of April 18, 2020, 2.16 million patients in the world had been tested positive with Coronavirus (COVID-19) and 146,088 had died, which accounts for a case fatality rate of 6.76%. In Mexico, according to official statistics (April 18), 7,497 cases have been confirmed with 650 deaths, for a case fatality rate of 8.67%. These estimates, however, may not reflect the final fatality risk among COVID-19 confirmed patients, because they are based on cross-sectional counts of diagnosed and deceased patients, and therefore are not adjusted by time of exposure and right-censorship. In this paper we estimate fatality risks based on survival analysis methods, calculated from individual-level data on symptomatic patients confirmed with COVID-19 recently released by the Mexican Ministry of Health. The estimated fatality risk after 35 days of onset of symptoms is 12.38% (95% CI: 11.37-13.47). Fatality risks sharply rise with age, and significantly increase for males (59%) and individuals with comorbidities (38%-168%, depending on the disease). Two reasons may explain the high COVID-19 related fatality risk observed in Mexico, despite its younger age structure: the high selectivity and self-selectivity in testing and the high prevalence of chronic-degenerative diseases.
Matching journals
The top 6 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- The lower COVID-19 related mortality and incidence rates in Eastern European countries are associated with delayed start of community circulation 92%
- Mortality in Switzerland in 2021 92%
- Development and validation of a clinical risk score to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection from administrative data: a population-based cohort study from Italy 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- COVID-19 mortality in Italy varies by patient age, sex and pandemic wave 93%
- Development and performance of a population-based risk stratification model for COVID-19 92%
- Differential features of the fifth wave of COVID-19 associated with vaccination and the Delta variant in a reference hospital in Catalonia, Spain 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Covid-19 Incidence And Mortality By Age Strata And Comorbidities In Mexico City: A Focus In The Pediatric Population 92%
- Basic reproduction number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Major Endemic Areas of China: A latent profile analysis 91%
- On the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality: Lost years or lost days? 90%
Similar papers in this journal
- Ascertainment rate of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan 92%
- Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. 92%
- Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19) 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data 92%
- The COVID-19 infection in Italy: a statistical study of an abnormally severe disease 92%
- Does Influenza vaccination reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19? 91%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.