Model calibration, nowcasting, and operational prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic
Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.
Show abstract
We present a simple operational nowcasting/forecasting scheme based on a joint state/parameter estimate of the COVID-19 epidemic at national or regional scale, performed by assimilating the time series of reported daily death numbers into a simple SEIR model. This system generates estimates of the current reproductive rate, Rt, together with predictions of future daily deaths and clearly outperforms a number of alternative forecasting systems that have been presented recently. Our current (14th April 2020) estimates for Rt are, respectively, UK 0.49 (0.0 - 1.02), Spain 0.55 (0.33 - 0.77), Italy 0.90 (0.74 - 1.06) and France 0.67 (0.40 - 0.94) (mean and 95% credible intervals). Thus, we believe that the epidemics have been successfully suppressed in each of these countries, with high probability. Our approach is trivial to set up for any region and generates results in a few minutes on a laptop. We believe it would be straightforward to set up equivalent frameworks using more complex and realistic models, and hope that some experts in the field of epidemiological modelling will consider investigating this approach further.
Matching journals
The top 8 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia 96%
- Model Based Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Immunization Level in Austria and Consequences for Herd Immunity Effects 95%
- Uncertainty and Inconsistency of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Effects with Multiple Competitive Statistical Models 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Covid-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts 95%
- Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data 95%
- Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories 94%
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.