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Further analysis of the impact of distancing upon the COVID-19 pandemic

Bernstein, D. J.

2020-04-16 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.14.20048025 medRxiv
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This paper questions various claims from the paper "Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic" by Kissler, Tedijanto, Lipsitch, and Grad: most importantly, the claim that Chinas "intense" distancing measures achieved only a 60% reduction in R0.

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The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
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50% of probability mass above
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2.4%
11
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13
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● 23 papers in training set
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1.5%
18
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◐ 308 papers in training set
Top 7%
1.1%
19
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○ 133 papers in training set
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1.1%
20
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● 35 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.1%
21
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1.1%
22
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23
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1.1%
24
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1.1%
26
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27
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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.