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Fear of exponential growth in Covid19 data of India andfuture sketching

Mondal, S.; Ghosh, S.

2020-04-11 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.09.20058933 medRxiv
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We have attempted to interpret existing n-cov positive data in India with respect to other countries - Italy, USA, China and South Korea. We have mainly zoomed in the exponential growth in a particular zone of time axis, which is well followed in the data profile of India and Italy but not in others. A deviation from exponential growth to Sigmoid function is analyzed in the data profile of China and South Korea. Projecting that pattern to time dependent data of total number and new cases in India, we have drawn three possible Sigmoid functions, which saturate to cases 104, 105, 106. Ongoing data has doubtful signal of those possibilities and future hope is probably in extension of lock-down and additional imposition of interventions.

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