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How The COVID-19 Pandemia Is Spreading In Italy

Salvatoni, A.

2020-04-11 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.07.20056846 medRxiv
Show abstract

In this short paper we describe a simple technique aimed to forecast the course of the spreading of Covid-19 virus infection in Italy. Data released every day by the Italian "Protezione Civile" organization have been processed with reference of the the SIR classical mathematical model by Kermack and McKendrick. The model provides a rough estimate of the time needed to completely block virus spread. The above assumptions will be valid if Covid-19 will not be recognized as capable of establishing a chronic productive infection in significant fraction of the population.

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