The impact of early social distancing at COVID-19 Outbreak in the largest Metropolitan Area of Brazil.
Ganem, F.; Mendes, F. M.; Oliveira, S. B.; Porto, V. B. G.; Araujo, W.; Nakaya, H.; Diaz-Quijano, F. A.; Croda, J.
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We evaluated the impact of early social distancing on the COVID-19 transmission in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. Using an age-stratified SEIR model, we determined the time-dependent reproductive number, and forecasted the ICU beds necessary to tackle this epidemic. Within 60 days, these measures might prevent 89,450 deaths.
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