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Estimating the unseen emergence of COVID-19 in the US

Javan, E. M.; Fox, S. J.; Meyers, L. A.

2020-11-13 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.04.06.20053561 medRxiv
Show abstract

For each US county, we calculated the probability of an ongoing COVID-19 epidemic that may not yet be apparent. Based on confirmed cases as of April 15, 2020, COVID-19 is likely spreading in 86% of counties containing 97% of US population. Proactive measures before two cases are confirmed are prudent.

Matching journals

The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS ONE
● 4510 papers in training set
Top 8%
19.2%
2
Annals of Internal Medicine
● 27 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
19.1%
3
Clinical Infectious Diseases
◐ 231 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
8.6%
4
Nature Communications
○ 4913 papers in training set
Top 24%
7.4%
50% of probability mass above
5
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
● 2130 papers in training set
Top 9%
7.4%
6
Scientific Reports
○ 3102 papers in training set
Top 16%
6.6%
7
PLOS Medicine
● 98 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.8%
8
Emerging Infectious Diseases
● 103 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.7%
9
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.7%
10
Nature Medicine
○ 117 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.7%
11
JAMA Network Open
● 127 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.7%
12
American Journal of Preventive Medicine
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.5%
13
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1633 papers in training set
Top 19%
1.3%
14
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
○ 71 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.0%
15
Science Advances
● 1098 papers in training set
Top 25%
1.0%
16
eLife
● 5422 papers in training set
Top 52%
0.9%
17
Science
● 429 papers in training set
Top 18%
0.9%
18
PeerJ
◐ 261 papers in training set
Top 13%
0.8%
19
Canadian Medical Association Journal
● 15 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
0.7%
20
PNAS Nexus
◐ 147 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.7%
21
Journal of Infection
○ 71 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.7%
22
Open Forum Infectious Diseases
◐ 134 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.5%
23
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 126 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.5%
24
Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
◐ 61 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.5%
25
American Journal of Epidemiology
◐ 57 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.5%