Sustainable social distancing through facemask use and testing during the Covid-19 pandemic
Chowell, G.; Chowell, D.; Roosa, K.; Dhillon, R.; Srikrishna, D.
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We investigate how individual protective behaviors, different levels of testing, and isolation influence the transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on an SEIR-type model incorporating asymptomatic but infectious individuals (40%), we show that the pandemic may be readily controllable through a combination of testing, treatment if necessary, and self-isolation after testing positive (TTI) of symptomatic individuals together with social protection (e.g., facemask use, handwashing). When the basic reproduction number, R0, is 2.4, 65% effective social protection alone (35% of the unprotected transmission) brings the R below 1. Alternatively, 20% effective social protection brings the reproduction number below 1.0 so long as 75% of the symptomatic population is covered by TTI within 12 hours of symptom onset. Even with 20% effective social protection, TTI of 1 in 4 symptomatic individuals can substantially 'flatten the curve' cutting the peak daily incidence in half.
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