Scaling analysis of COVID-19 spreading based on Belgian hospitalization data
Smeets, B.; Watte, R.; Ramon, H.
Show abstract
We analyze the temporal evolution of accumulated hospitalization cases due to COVID-19 in Belgium. The increase of hospitalization cases is consistent with an initial exponential phase, and a subsequent power law growth. For the latter, we estimate a power law exponent of {approx} 2.2, which is consistent with growth kinetics of COVID-19 in China and indicative of the underlying small world network structure of the epidemic. Finally, we fit an SIR-X model to the experimental data and estimate the effect of containment policies in comparison to their effect in China. This model suggests that the base reproduction rate has been significantly reduced, but that the number of susceptible individuals that is isolated from infection is very small. Based on the SIR-X model fit, we analyze the COVID-19 mortality and the number of patients requiring ICU treatment over time.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Age-structured non-pharmaceutical interventions for optimal control of COVID-19 epidemic 96%
- The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout 96%
- Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios 95%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.