Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail
Bock, W.; Adamik, B.; Bawiec, M.; Bezborodov, V.; Bodych, M.; Burgard, J. P.; Goetz, T.; Krueger, T.; Migalska, A.; Pabjan, B.; Ozanski, T.; Rafajlowicz, E.; Rafajlowicz,, W.; Skubalska-Rafajlowicz, E.; Ryfczynska, S.; Szczurek, E.; Szymanski, P.
Show abstract
On the basis of a semi-realistic SIR microsimulation for Germany and Poland, we show that the R0 parameter interval for which the COVID-19 epidemic stays overcritical but below the capacity limit of the health care system to reach herd immunity is so narrow that a successful implementation of this strategy is likely to fail, which is in contrast to results obtained from classical differential equation models. Our microsimulation is based on official census data and involves household composition and age distribution as the main population structure variables. Outside household contacts are characterised by an out-reproduction number R* which is the only free parameter of the model. For a subcritical domain we compute the time till extinction and prevalence as a function of the initial number of infected individuals and R*. For the Polish city of Wrocaw we also discuss the combined impact of testing coverage and contact reduction. For both countries we estimate R* for disease progression until 20th of March 2020.
Matching journals
The top 11 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- PERCOVID: A Model to Describe COVID Percolation on a Network of Social Relationships 97%
- Modelling, prediction and design of national COVID-19 lockdowns by stringency and duration 97%
- Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Stages of COVID-19 pandemic and paths to herd immunity by vaccination: dynamical model comparing Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden 96%
- The importance of vaccinated individuals to population-level evolution of pathogens 95%
- Disentangling how multiple traits drive 2 strain frequencies in SIS dynamics with coinfection 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Risk Behavior, Backward Bifurcation, and Vaccine Effectiveness in Disease Dynamics. 96%
- A simple model for how the risk of pandemics from different virus families depends on viral and human traits 96%
- On the design and stability of cancer adaptive therapy cycles: deterministic and stochastic models 95%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.