COVID-19 in Canada: Predictions for the future and control lessons from Asia
Christian, C.; Christian, F.
Show abstract
COVID-19 has spread with unequal efficiency in various parts of the world. In several European countries including Italy, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases has followed a consistent, exponential pattern of spread. However, some countries, notably Taiwan and Hong Kong, have achieved a different outcome and have managed to bring the COVID-19 outbreak in their countries rapidly under control, without entering the exponential pattern and with very few cases. They have used several different approaches to COVID-19 outbreak control, including the innovative use of smartphone technology and the widespread use of surgical face masks. We show through our models, that Canada has followed the same, consistent COVID-19 exponential growth pattern that is seen in Italy. Both nationally and in its most heavily affected provinces, there is exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, making it possible to make predictions for the future, if no further interventions are made in public health policy. In particular, we argue for the urgent introduction of surgical face masks in health care and other settings and the harnessing of the power of smartphone technology on a national scale.
Matching journals
The top 10 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Which COVID policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction 95%
- Regular testing of asymptomatic healthcare workers identifies cost-efficient SARS-CoV-2 preventive measures 94%
- Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: a mathematical study 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data 94%
- Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories 94%
- Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions in 2020-2021, and the impact of individual actions: a retrospective model-based analysis 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout 93%
- Risk mapping novel respiratory pathogens with large-scale dynamic contact networks 93%
- A significant increase in Tuberculosis diagnosis is required to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on its future burden 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- A Predictive Modelling Framework for COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events 94%
- General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA 93%
- COVID-19 spreading: a recursive model 92%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.