Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

Executive SummaryWe estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these: O_LIWill the ICU capacity in Chicago be exceeded, and if so by how much? C_LIO_LICan strong mitigation strategies, such as lockdown or shelter in place order, prevent the overflow of capacity? C_LIO_LIWhen should such strategies be implemented? C_LI Our answers are as follows: O_LIThe ICU capacity may be exceeded by a large amount, probably by a factor of ten. C_LIO_LIStrong mitigation can avert this emergency situation potentially, but even that will not work if implemented too late. C_LIO_LIIf the strong mitigation precedes April 1st, then the growth of COVID-19 can be controlled and the ICU capacity could be adequate. The earlier the strong mitigation is implemented, the greater the probability that it will be successful. After around April 1 2020, any strong mitigation will not avert the emergency situation. In Italy, the lockdown occurred too late and the number of deaths is still doubling every 2.3 days. It is difficult to be sure about the precise dates for this window of opportunity, due to the inherent uncertainties in computer simulation. But there is high confidence in the main conclusion that it exists and will soon be closed. C_LI Our conclusion is that, being fully cognizant of the societal trade-offs, there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to avert a worst-case scenario in Chicago, but only with strong mitigation/lockdown implemented in the next week at the latest. If this window is missed, the epidemic will get worse and then strong mitigation/lockdown will be required after all, but it will be too late.