Investigating the Impact of Asymptomatic Carriers on COVID-19 Transmission
Aguilar, J. B.; Gutierrez, J. B.
Show abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel human respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Asymptomatic carriers of the COVID-19 virus display no clinical symptoms but are known to be contagious. Recent evidence reveals that this subpopulation, as well as persons with mild disease, are a major contributor in the propagation of the disease. The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced governments around the world to establish and enforce generalized risk mitigation strategies, from lockdowns to guidelines for social distancing, in an effort to minimize community transmission. This created an unprecedented epidemiological situation not properly characterized by existing mathematical models of isolation and quarantine. In this manuscript, we present a mathematical model for community transmission of COVID-19 taking into account asymptomatic carriers and varying degrees of risk mitigation. The main results consist of an exact calculation of the effective reproduction number [Formula], and a modeling framework that enables the quantification of the effect of risk mitigation and asymptomatism on community transmission. A computation of [Formula] is provided using mean parameters. The point estimate of the basic reproduction number is [Formula].
Matching journals
The top 10 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Model Based Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Immunization Level in Austria and Consequences for Herd Immunity Effects 96%
- Distribution of Incubation Period of COVID-19 in the Canadian Context: Modeling and Computational Study 96%
- Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- An improved mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy, with Monte Carlo simulations and error analyses 96%
- A novel deterministic forecast model for the Covid-19 epidemic based on a single ordinary integro-differential equation 95%
- DNA Mutations via Chern-Simons Current 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Projection of Healthcare Demand in Germany and Switzerland Urged by Omicron Wave (January-March 2022) 96%
- Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories 94%
- Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China 94%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.