Evaluating the effect of public health intervention on the global-wide spread trajectory of Covid-19
Hu, Z.; Ge, Q.; Li, S.; Jin, L.; Xiong, M.
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As COVID-19 evolves rapidly, the issues the governments of affected countries facing are whether and when to take public health interventions and what levels of strictness of these interventions should be, as well as when the COVID-19 spread reaches the stopping point after interventions are taken. To help governments with policy-making, we developed modified auto-encoders (MAE) method to forecast spread trajectory of Covid-19 of countries affected, under different levels and timing of intervention strategies. Our analysis showed public health interventions should be executed as soon as possible. Delaying intervention 4 weeks after March 8, 2020 would cause the maximum number of cumulative cases of death increase from 7,174 to 133,608 and the ending points of the epidemic postponed from Jun 25 to Aug 22.
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