A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China
Wang, M.; Qi, J.
Show abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities took unprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading of the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematical model based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolution of the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimate the basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 {+/-} 0.11, time between March 19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming less than one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number of confirmed cases approaching 14408 {+/-} 429 on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province.
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