CoVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?
Shao, N.; Pan, H.; Li, X.; Li, W.; Wang, S.; Xuan, Y.; Yan, Y.; Yu, J.; Liu, K.; Chen, Y.; Xu, B.; Luo, X.; Shen, C. Y.; Zhong, M.; Xu, X.; Chen, X.; Lu, S.; Ding, G.; Cheng, J.; Chen, W.
Show abstract
COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly Since December 2019. We have independently developed a novel statistical time delay dynamic model on the basis of the distribution models from CCDC. Based only on the numbers of confirmed cases in different regions in China, the model can clearly reveal that the containment of the epidemic highly depends on early and effective isolation. We apply the model on the epidemic in Japan and conclude that there could be a rapid outbreak in Japan if no effective quarantine measures are carried out immediately.
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