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Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States
Blumberg, S.; Lietman, T. M.; Porco, T. C.
2020-02-11
epidemiology
10.1101/2020.02.08.20021311
medRxiv
Show abstract
Rapid assessment of the transmission potential of an emerging or reemerging pathogen is a cornerstone of public health response. A simple approach is shown for using the number of disease introductions and secondary cases to determine whether the upper bound of the reproduction number exceeds the critical value of one.
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