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Transmission and epidemiological characteristics of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-Infected Pneumonia(NCIP):preliminary evidence obtained in comparison with 2003-SARS

Zhang, R.; Liu, H.; Li, F.; Zhang, B.; Liu, Q.; Li, X.; Luo, L.

2020-02-02 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.01.30.20019836 medRxiv
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ObjectivesLatest epidemic data of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected Pneumonia (COVID-19) was collected and a detailed statistical analysis was carried out to make comparison with 2003-SARS in order to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of COVID-19. MethodsThe information of COVID-19 and 2003-SARS from websites of NHCPRC and the World Health Organization was collected, and then the transmission dynamics of the two kinds of infectious diseases were analyzed. The information of 853 confirmed COVID-19 patients obtained from the website of health committees of 18 provinces. A descriptive epidemiological analysis method was employed to carefully analyze the epidemic characteristics. Subsequently, the COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and other inland regions of China was analyzed separately and compared. A multivariate function model was constructed based on the confirmed COVID-19 case data. ResultsThe growth rate of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 were significantly faster than those of 2003-SARS. The number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and other inland areas both showed increasing trends. 853 confirmed COVID-19 cases aged 1 months to 94 years and the average age was (45.05 {+/-} 17.22) years. The gender ratio (M: F) was 1.12: 1. ConclusionsThe fatality rate of COVID-19 is lower than that of 2003-SARS and the cure rate is higher. The age of COVID-19 patients is mainly concentrated in the 30-50 years old (60.61%). The harm of the first-generation COVID-19 patients is higher than that of secondary cases.

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