Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
Riou, J.; Althaus, C. L.
Show abstract
On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4--3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Trajectories of COVID-19: a longitudinal analysis of many nations and subnational regions 96%
- Modeling the effect of vaccination strategies in an Excel spreadsheet: The rate of vaccination, and not only the vaccination coverage, is a determinant for containing COVID-19 in urban areas 95%
- A novel computational approach to reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics through the inference of unsampled sources of infection 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- A mechanistic and data-driven reconstruction of the time-varying reproduction number: Application to the COVID-19 epidemic 95%
- The quarantine hospital strategy as a way to reduce both community and nosocomial transmission in the context of a COVID-like epidemic 95%
- Characterizing geographical and temporal dynamics of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 using informative subtype markers 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction 95%
- Modeling the Effect of Lockdown Timing as a COVID-19 Control Measure in Countries with Differing Social Contacts 94%
- Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- Quantifying the dynamics of viral recombination during free virus and cell-to-cell transmission in HIV-1 infection 93%
- Modeling cellular co-infection and reassortment of bluetongue virus in Culicoides midges 93%
- A phylogenetic contribution to understanding the panzootic spread of African swine fever: from the global to the local scale 93%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.