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Oncotarget

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Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Oncotarget's content profile, based on 18 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Genomic correlates with survival after treatment of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by surgery alone

Trinh, A.; Udumanne, T. P.; Lord, S. J.; Falkenback, D.; Levert-Mignon, A. J.; Liew, Y. J.; Pascovici, D.; Bourke, M. J.; Grady, J. P.; McCabe, M.; Naeini, M. M.; Joshua, A.; Barnet, M.; Goldstein, L. D.; Ross, J.; Johansson, J.; Lord, R. V.

2026-10-16 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365576 medRxiv
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New prognostic biomarkers for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) may help treatment planning as current staging does not accurately predict survival for many patients. We used a 451 cancer-associated gene panel to assess genomic alterations associated with survival for a cohort of 65 OAC patients who underwent surgical resection without perioperative treatment, reflecting institutional practice at the time. Median age at operation was 72 years, 88% were male, median 32 lymph nodes were removed per patient, and minimum follow-up exceeded 11 years. TNM stages (pTNM, 8th ed.) were 14% stage 1, 14% stage 2, 45% stage 3, and 6% stage 4 (non-locoregional nodal metastases). Copy number changes were common, and somatic mutations were similar to those reported previously. Genetic associations with worse survival included amplification of CCND1 (HR=3.08, p=0.02), EGFR (HR=2.98, p=0.01), loss of ARID2 (HR=2.12, p=0.05), KMT2D (HR=1.99, p=0.07) and missense mutation within RYR1 (HR=2.68, p=0.01). This study identifies candidate genomic prognostic biomarkers in OAC using a cohort treated by surgery alone, enabling assessment of tumour biology independent of the confounding effects of peri-operative systemic therapy and radiotherapy. Several of the identified alterations are potentially targetable, supporting further investigation of genomic profiling to refine prognostication and guide treatment selection.

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Prognostic significance of the C-reactive protein-albumin-lymphocyte (CALLY) index in primary lung malignancies: a systematic review and meta-analysis with GRADE assessment

Shamohammadi, M.; Yarahmadi, D.; Naseri Rad, F.; Patel, I.; Yarahmadi, M.; Rashidi, A.; Yarahmadi, A.; Kordestani Moghadam, P.; Naghavi, N.

2026-10-20 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.18.26365819 medRxiv
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Background: The C-reactive protein-albumin-lymphocyte (CALLY) index integrates systemic inflammation, nutritional status, and immune function. We evaluated its association with survival in primary lung malignancies. Methods: Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched from inception to 18 September 2026. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool. Hazard ratios (HRs) were synthesized using random-effects models with restricted maximum likelihood estimation and Hartung-Knapp adjustment. Sensitivity analyses, subgroup analyses, and meta-regression examined robustness and heterogeneity. Results: Eleven studies contributed 13 cohorts to the overall survival (OS) analysis and 8 cohorts from seven studies to a combined recurrence/progression-free survival (RFS/PFS) analysis. Lower CALLY was associated with poorer OS (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.49-2.12; I2=71.6%) and poorer RFS/PFS (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.40-1.84; I2=0%). Associations persisted in leave-one-out analyses. No statistically significant subgroup differences were detected. Funnel-plot asymmetry suggested small-study effects for OS and RFS/PFS. Seven studies had moderate and four had high overall risk of bias. The certainty of evidence was rated as low for both OS and RFS/PFS, primarily due to risk of bias, heterogeneity, and endpoint indirectness. Conclusion: Lower CALLY was associated with adverse survival outcomes in the current synthesis. Methodological limitations and variation in biomarker measurement and endpoint definitions restrict interpretation. Prospective validation using standardized measurements and clinically coherent outcomes is needed to establish incremental prognostic value and clinical utility. Keywords: CALLY index; lung cancer; prognosis; overall survival; systematic review; meta-analysis

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Host Determinants of Adjuvant Chemotherapy Initiation and Survival in Upper Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinoma

Jiao, B.; Alotaibi, S.; Abumelha, K.; Tankel, J.; Ferri, L.; Asselah, J.; Alcindor, T.; Mueller, C.; Rousseau, M.; Soldera, S.; Lee, L.; Bertos, N.; Dehghani, M.; Ma, K. A.; Cools-Lartigue, J.

2026-10-15 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.13.26365477 medRxiv
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Introduction: Perioperative systemic therapy improves outcomes in gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, but many patients do not receive postoperative treatment. We examined whether host characteristics and perioperative inflammatory and albumin changes provided information about adjuvant initiation beyond tumour pathology, and whether initiation was associated with survival and disease control. Method: This retrospective cohort included patients undergoing curative-intent resection for gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma at the McGill University Health Centre between 2006 and 2025. Sequential logistic models evaluated pathological characteristics, pre-treatment host variables and perioperative changes in CBC-derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (cNLR) and albumin. Postoperative measurements preceded adjuvant initiation. Nested comparisons used matched complete cases. Day-90 landmark and time-varying Cox models assessed associations between adjuvant initiation and survival. Results: Among 243 patients, 78 (32.1%) did not initiate adjuvant therapy. Adding host variables improved apparent discrimination for initiation beyond pathology (AUC 0.672 to 0.763; P=0.002). Greater perioperative cNLR increase was associated with lower odds of initiation (adjusted OR 0.67 per unit increase in {Delta}log2; cNLR, 95% CI 0.47-0.95), whereas more favourable albumin change was associated with higher odds (OR 1.07 per g/L, 95% CI 1.01-1.13). Neither marker retained a clear independent association when modelled together. Adjuvant initiation by day 90 was associated with longer overall survival (adjusted HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.36-0.78) and disease-free survival (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.39-0.84), with similar time-varying findings. Conclusion: Host inflammatory and albumin changes added information about adjuvant initiation beyond tumour pathology, and initiation was associated with longer survival. Prospective evaluation should determine whether host-directed perioperative strategies can improve postoperative treatment delivery.

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Diagnostic accuracy of deep learning for microsatellite instability prediction in gastric cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Du, Y.; Liao, H.; Li, J.; He, Y.; Di, J.

2026-10-15 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.12.26365351 medRxiv
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Deep learning (DL) applied to haematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained pathology images can predict microsatellite instability (MSI) in gastric cancer (GC). We evaluated its diagnostic accuracy and discriminative performance. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched for studies applying DL to H&E images for MSI prediction in GC. The protocol was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD420261503140). Risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were estimated with a bivariate random-effects model, with subgroup analyses by validation strategy and data source; slide-level areas under the curve (AUCs) were pooled after logit transformation. Prespecified scenario analyses assessed robustness. Ten studies were included; seven independent datasets from six studies entered the primary synthesis. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and summary receiver operating characteristic AUC were 0.78 (95% CI 0.63-0.88), 0.85 (95% CI 0.77-0.90) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.86-0.91); nine studies contributed to the secondary AUC synthesis (pooled AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.89). Hospital-derived cohorts showed numerically higher sensitivity (0.86) and diagnostic odds ratio (39.8) than TCGA-derived cohorts (0.71 and 11.5), but subgroup differences were limited by the small number of studies and substantial heterogeneity. DL models show good diagnostic accuracy for MSI prediction in GC, but clinical utility still requires confirmation in standardised multicentre, independent external and prospective studies.

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No decline in functional status or cognitive function during the first year after treatment initiation for early-stage breast cancer in women aged 75 years and older: a prospective observational matched cohort study

van der Plas-Krijgsman, W. G.; Blom, J. W.; Derks, M. G. M.; van Dalen, T.; van Gerven, L.; Guicherit, O. R.; Lans, T. E.; Linthorst-Niers, E. M. H.; Merkus, J. W. S.; Vulink, A. J. E.; Mooijaart, S. P.; de Glas, N. A.; Gussekloo, J.; Liefers, G.-J.; Portielje, J. E. A.

2026-10-15 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365509 medRxiv
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Background: This study compared functional and cognitive trajectories in older women treated for early breast cancer with matched women without cancer. Methods: Data were derived from two Dutch cohorts: the CLIMB study (women aged 75 years and older with operable breast cancer) and the ISCOPE study (community-dwelling women aged 75 years and older without cancer). Breast cancer patients were matched 1:2 to controls on age and baseline functional or cognitive status. Functional status was assessed using the Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS), and cognitive function using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Longitudinal changes over 12 months were analyzed using both unadjusted and confounder-adjusted linear mixed models. Results: 168 breast cancer patients and 336 matched breast cancer-free controls were included with a mean age of 80 years. Most breast cancer patients had stage 0-I or II disease and received surgery and/or radiotherapy; 48% received adjuvant endocrine therapy, chemotherapy was rare (<1%). At baseline, both cohorts were comparable in age and functional or cognitive status, although there was a higher comorbidity burden in the control cohort. No significant differences in functional or cognitive decline were observed between the cohorts over 12 months. Conclusions: In older women, early breast cancer and its treatment did not lead to accelerated decline in functional status or cognitive function within the first year compared to matched older women without cancer. These findings suggest that, for relatively fit older patients, breast cancer treatment may not accelerate functional decline in the short term.

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Peripheral Biomarkers and Determinants of Survival for Patients with Melanoma Brain Metastasis Treated with Immune Checkpoint Blockade

Hassan, J.; Little, M.; Farkas, A.; Mackay, S.; Coupe, N.; Middleton, M.; Payne, M. J.; Fairfax, B.

2026-10-21 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365947 medRxiv
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Background Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) has become the standard of treatment for metastatic melanoma (MM). However, patients with melanoma brain metastases (MBM) are often excluded from clinical trials. Here we analyse patients within the real-world OxCITE cohort receiving ICB treatment for metastatic melanoma, with a focus on MBM, aiming to discern outcomes, prognostic factors and peripheral biomarkers. Methods Patients eligible for ICB treatment were recruited prospectively. Demographic, clinical and radiological data were collected from electronic patient records. Plasma samples were collected prior to the first cycle of treatment for plasma proteomic analysis. Results 307 patients were included, 81 of whom had MBM on commencing ICB. No difference in overall survival between patients with and without brain metastases was noted on multivariable analysis (HR=1.1, 95% CI 0.73-1.6, p=0.68), whereas hepatic metastases were associated with increased risk of death (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4, p=0.0019). Within the MBM group, steroid treatment (HR=2.5, 95% CI 1.3-5.0, p=0.006) was associated with poor OS, whilst treatment with single agent ICB (HR=1.9, 95% CI 0.86-3.9, p=0.11), symptomatic first presentation of MBM (HR=1.5, 95% CI 0.76-2.8, p=0.25) and anti-seizure drug treatment (HR=1.74, 95% CI 0.89-3.4, p=0.10) were not. Amongst all patients carriage of a BRAF mutation was associated with increased risk of MBM (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.4-4.4, p=0.0007), and increased propensity to new brain metastases on ICB treatment (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.9, p=0.036). Analysis of blood and plasma samples demonstrated that patients with MBM have altered haematological profiles, with raised NLR and increased plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein levels, reinforcing the distinct systemic features of MBM. Conclusions In this real-world cohort of patients receiving ICB for metastatic melanoma, the presence of MBM did not associate with worse OS. Conversely, baseline corticosteroid use was adversely prognostic. Intriguingly, plasma GFAP was significantly elevated in patients with MBM and correlated with the burden of intracranial disease, highlighting a potential role for GFAP as a candidate biomarker for MBM in high-risk surveillance. Our observations indicate the adversely prognostic weight historically attached to M1d disease is no longer applicable in the ICB era.

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Correlation of Axillary Nodal with Breast Response Following Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Early Breast Cancer

Agrawal, A.; Soliman, M.; Ahmed, B.; Barmpounakis, P.; Provenzano, E.

2026-10-15 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365456 medRxiv
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Background: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) facilitates de-escalation of breast and axillary treatment in breast cancer, but pathological responses may differ between the primary tumour and axillary lymph nodes. Understanding differential response is crucial for de-escalation strategies. Methods: This single university hospital retrospective study analysed operable breast cancers (cT1-cT3, cN0-cN3) treated with NACT (January 2013-November 2020). Two-tailed Fishers exact test or the Chi-squared test (for 2x2 comparisons) analysed concordance between breast and axillary pathological responses; Cox proportional hazards regression ascertained predictors of distant recurrence and survival; and logistic regression ascertained predictors of complete axillary response. Results: Among 413 patients (cN0=229; cN+=184) with a median age of 51, pathological response concordance between the breast and axilla was 81% (both pCR, 22.2%; concurrent residual disease, 58.8%). The cN0 group had a significantly higher ypN0 rate in breast pCR versus non-pCR (97.1% vs 80.8%, p<0.001). cN+ had axillary pCR concordant with breast pCR, compared to only 16.5% with residual breast disease. Breast pCR was the most significant predictor of axillary pCR (OR=11.6, p<0.001). Axillary pCR was highest in ER-/HER2+(66.7%) and triple-negative(46.9%) subtypes. Residual axillary disease was independently associated with the worst breast cancer-specific (HR=7.13, p=0.006) and overall Survival (HR=3.32, p=0.029). Kaplan-Meier analyses showed a trend towards worse survival outcomes with axillary residual disease, even with a breast pCR. Conclusions: In this limited series, breast pCR predicts axillary pCR in cN0 and cN+, particularly in HER2-positives and triple-negatives, supporting axillary de-escalation strategies in selected patients stratified by careful assessment of disease at the end of NACT.

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Real-world perioperative FLOT delivery in gastric and gastro-oesophageal junction adenocarcinoma: a single-centre service evaluation in a District General Hospital in the UK

Sabharwal, R.; Bhaskaran, D.

2026-10-21 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365836 medRxiv
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Background: Although perioperative fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin and docetaxel (FLOT) is the standard neoadjuvant regimen for resectable gastric and gastro-oesophageal junction adenocarcinoma, evidence describing treatment delivery in routine clinical practice remains limited, particularly regarding relative dose intensity (RDI) and treatment completion. Objectives: To evaluate real-world delivery of preoperative FLOT chemotherapy, including treatment completion, progression to surgery, RDI, toxicity and exploratory changes in estimated lean body mass (LBM). Methods: A retrospective single-centre service evaluation included consecutive patients receiving neoadjuvant FLOT during 2024. Outcomes included treatment completion, surgery, RDI, toxicity, pathological response and estimated LBM. Descriptive statistics were used. Results: Twelve patients were included (median age 68.6 years; 91.7% male). Eleven (91.6%) completed all four preoperative cycles and proceeded to surgery. Mean RDI was 76.7%. Pre-emptive dose capping was the predominant dose modification strategy, with only one reactive dose reduction. Two grade 3 adverse events occurred. Major pathological response (Mandard grade 1-2) was observed in 2/12 patients (16.7%). Mean estimated LBM declined from 54.3 to 53.4 kg. Greater LBM loss appeared to coincide with poorer clinical outcomes. Conclusions: High treatment completion and progression to surgery were achieved despite reduced RDI. These findings support prospective evaluation of strategies to optimise chemotherapy delivery while maintaining tolerability in routine clinical practice.

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Clinicopathologic Predictors of PSMA-PET Detection, Recurrence Pattern, and Biochemical Outcome Following Salvage Radiotherapy After Radical Prostatectomy

Jubril, R.; Prabhu, A. V.; Ishaq, O.; Ocana, J. A.; Tann, M.; Njeh, C.; Bahler, C. D.; Holmes, J.; Oderinde, O.

2026-10-19 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365643 medRxiv
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Purpose: Biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) presents heterogeneous recurrence patterns and variable outcomes following salvage radiotherapy (sRT). We evaluated clinicopathologic determinants of PSMA-PET/CT detection, anatomical recurrence distribution, and biochemical disease-free survival (bDFS) following PSMA-PET-guided sRT. Methods: This retrospective single-institution study included 140 patients with BCR after RP who underwent Ga-PSMA-PET/CT prior to sRT with or without androgen deprivation therapy. PSMA-PET-positive findings were categorized as prostate bed only (PBO) or pelvic nodal involvement with or without the prostate bed (PLNI). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards models were employed. Results: PSMA-PET detected locoregional recurrence in 77/140 patients (55%). On multivariable analysis, PSA at recurrence (OR=2.07; p=0.003) and age (OR=1.07; p=0.016) were the sole independent predictors of PSMA-PET positivity. ROC analysis yielded AUC=0.74 (optimal threshold of 0.58 ng/mL). Among PSMA-positive patients, PBO was associated with a longer time to BCR (tBCR) (37.5 versus 15 months; p=0.006). Seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and pT-stage predicted PLNI on univariable analysis. Among 124 of 140 evaluable patients (median follow-up 31 months), estimated bDFS at 24, 36, and 60 months was 89.7%, 80.2%, and 54.1%, respectively. SVI (HR=2.39; p=0.031), EPE (HR=2.82; p=0.012), pT-stage (HR=1.64; p=0.021), and pN-stage (HR=1.83; p=0.045) were associated with increased failure on univariable Cox regression, though none retained independent significance. Conclusion: PSA burden and age independently predicted PSMA-PET detection. Recurrence patterns reflected disease behavior, as PBO was associated with longer tBCR. Adverse pathologic features were associated with pelvic nodal disease and reduced biochemical control; none remained independently predictive.

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Association between Resilience and Financial Toxicity: The Moderating Role of Age, Race and Socioeconomic Factors

Zhan, Y.; Wells, R.; Knobf, T.; Shan, L.; Lustberg, M. B.; Wang, H.-L.

2026-10-21 nursing 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365649 medRxiv
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PURPOSE: Women with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) are at risk of developing financial toxicity due to prolonged treatment. Resilience has been identified as a key protective factor associated with better quality of life among cancer populations. However, it is unknown if resilience is associated with financial toxicity. We sought to examine the relationship between resilience and financial toxicity among women with MBC and explore whether socioeconomic factors moderate this association. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Our sample included 209 women with MBC who completed self-reported questionnaires of the Resilience Scale Specific to Cancer (RS-SC) and the Comprehensive Score for Financial Toxicity (COST). Participants (n=2) with missing data were excluded from analysis. We conducted multiple linear regression to examine the association of resilience with financial toxicity. Interaction terms were used to test moderating effects of age (18-39, 40-64 and > =65 years), race, education, health insurance, household income and employment status. RESULTS: Of the sample, 56.5% were aged 40-64 years, 76.6% were White, and 79.9% had a college or master degree or above. Women reported moderately high resilience with mean RS-SC score of 34.49 (SD = 6.67), and moderate financial toxicity (mean COST score =21.01 [SD = 10.51]). Adjusting for covariates, higher resilience was linked to better financial well-being (b = 0.37, SE= 0.11, 95% CI [0.14, 0.59], P < 0.01). Age, education and health insurance moderated this relationship, with resilience more strongly associated with better financial well-being among those aged 40-64 years, with college/master degree or above and private insurance. Race, household income, and employment status did not moderate the association between resilience and financial toxicity. CONCLUSION: Women with MBC who reported higher resilience are more likely to experience better financial well-being, but the strength of this association varied by socioeconomic factors. Further research is needed to confirm these findings. Our results have important implications for incorporating resilience into financial toxicity interventions and tailoring such interventions based on individual socioeconomic characteristics.

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Does the Disease-free Survival Benefit of Adding Belzutifan to Adjuvant Pembrolizumab Persist Beyond the Planned Treatment Period? A Reconstructed Individual Patient Data Analysis of Phase 3 Renal Cell Carcinoma Trials

Chang, H.-H.; Chang, C.-K.; Tang, T.-Y.; Jhan, J.-H.; Dong, S.-W.; Juan, Y.-S.; Geng, J.-H.; Ou, H.-C.; Lee, H.-Y.; Li, C.-Y.; Yeh, H.-C.; Leong, M.-K.; Liu, C.-H.; Lee, Y.-C.; Huang, S.-P.

2026-10-16 oncology 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365591 medRxiv
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Background and Objective: Adding belzutifan to adjuvant pembrolizumab improved disease-free survival (DFS) in LITESPARK-022, but its durability beyond the 1-year treatment is unknown. Methods: Following a registered plan, we reconstructed individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier curves of ten phase 3 adjuvant renal cell carcinoma trials. Within each trial, we estimated restricted mean survival time differences ({Delta}RMST), hazard ratios (HRs) before and after planned treatment ended, and DFS differences. Key Findings and Limitations: In LITESPARK-022 (central review), the 24-month {Delta}RMST was 1.34 months (95% confidence interval 0.73-1.95), and the belzutifan arm remained ahead after month 12 ({Delta}RMST increment 0.74 months/yr, 0.32-1.19). The HR was 0.55 (0.43-0.71) before month 12 and 1.16 (0.87-1.54) afterwards (post/pre ratio 2.10); investigator assessment showed similar attenuation. Similar ratios occurred in KEYNOTE-564 at its first interim analysis (2.02), whose benefit persisted, and in SORCE and PROTECT (2.09, 2.59), whose benefit faded. From months 12 to 30 (post hoc), the DFS difference changed by -3.7 percentage points (-8.1 to 0.8) with central review and 0.6 (-4.0 to 5.0) with investigator assessment. Data were reconstructed, and follow-up was short. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: Relative hazard reductions with belzutifan were greater before month 12; durability of the absolute DFS advantage is uncertain and assessment-dependent, so single-HR projections should be avoided.

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Pharmacovigilance and Mechanistic Analysis of Adverse Reaction Differences Across EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Generations in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Arojo, O.; Jones, A. M.

2026-10-19 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.16.26364955 medRxiv
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Background: Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are widely used for EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) but have distinct toxicity profiles across generations. Aims: To investigate relationships between EGFR-TKI physicochemical, pharmacokinetic and pharmacological properties and drug-specific adverse drug reactions (ADRs) using national and global pharmacovigilance data. Methods: ADRs for erlotinib, afatinib and osimertinib were extracted from the UK MHRA Yellow Card scheme and WHO VigiAccess. Disproportionality analysis used reporting odds ratios (RORs). Signals were defined as ROR >2, lower 95% confidence interval >1 and >3 cases. Drug properties were curated from ChEMBL, emc, SmPC and EMA sources. Results: VigiAccess contained 88,662 individual case safety reports (163,619 ADRs) and Yellow Card contained 752 reports (1,814 ADRs). Four System Organ Class (SOC) signals were identified in VigiAccess and three in Yellow Card, with five additional Yellow Card Preferred Term signals. Eye disorders showed the strongest consistent association with erlotinib (VigiAccess ROR 4.33; Yellow Card ROR 4.18). Osimertinib was associated with pneumonitis (ROR 7.67) and pulmonary embolism (ROR 3.94). Afatinib showed psychiatric disorder signals in both databases (ROR 3.2-3.3) and diarrhoea (ROR 2.79). Neoplasm-related signals likely reflected confounding by indication. Conclusions: EGFR-TKIs demonstrate generation-specific pharmacovigilance profiles. Integration with drug properties supports mechanistic plausibility for several signals, while the atypical afatinib psychiatric association warrants further investigation. Findings are hypothesis-generating and require confirmation in controlled observational or mechanistic studies.

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Functional fine-mapping of the 9p21.3 cardiovascular disease locus implicates the lncRNA MIR31HG as an effector transcript in endothelial cells

Zhigulev, A.; Poujade, F.-A.; Gryzunov, N.; Buyan, A.; Li, H.; Bergman, O.; Liu, M.; Pradhananga, S.; Franco-Cereceda, A.; Swoboda, P.; Kulakovskiy, I. V.; Eriksson, P.; Sahlen, P.; Björck, H. M.

2026-10-19 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365688 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: The chromosome 9p21.3 locus is among the strongest genetic risk loci for cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet the regulatory mechanisms underlying this association remain poorly understood. Previous vascular disease studies focused predominantly on the role of this locus in smooth muscle cell (SMC) dysfunction, whereas its potential role in endothelial cells (ECs) remains less well characterized. Here, we sought to identify candidate regulatory variants at 9p21.3, their distal target genes, and effector transcripts that contribute to CVD-related phenotypes in ECs. METHODS: Promoter capture Hi-C was used to map chromatin interactions at 9p21.3 in primary human ascending aortic SMCs (n=6), supplementing the previously obtained ECs (n=16) dataset. To support the regulatory relevance of these interactions, expression quantitative trait locus analysis was performed in 136 vascular biopsies. Variant effects were prioritized in silico using AlphaGenome. The regulatory activity of the prioritized region was validated using CRISPR activation. RESULTS: Chromatin interaction mapping identified a complex regulatory architecture at the 9p21.3 locus involving 19 putative regulatory elements and 15 genes across ECs and SMCs. MIR31HG showed the most recurrent distal promoter connectivity with the 9p21.3 region. Consistent with the chromatin interaction map, expression of MIR31HG transcripts was associated with genetic variation at the 9p21.3 locus. In ECs, the lncRNA MIR31HG, but not miR-31, was responsive to hemodynamic flow. Depletion of MIR31HG in ECs was associated with endothelial activation. Epigenetic tracks and deep learning predictions highlighted an active enhancer element at 9p21.3, which was subsequently validated by CRISPR activation and increased MIR31HG expression, confirming its capacity to regulate MIR31HG over a large genomic distance of approximately 538 kb. CONCLUSIONS: Altogether, these data implicate lncRNA MIR31HG as a likely effector of the 9p21.3 CVD locus, linking the cis-regulatory element and heritable genetic variation in the respective region to endothelial activation through long-range enhancer regulation.

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Deep learning-based electrocardiographic differentiation of Takotsubo syndrome from acute anterior myocardial infarction: explainability, human-AI interaction, and a utilization bias hypothesis

Kagawa, E.; Kato, M.; Hidaka, T.; Kunita, E.; Hironobe, N.; Matsui, S.; Kobayashi, Y.; Uotani, Y.; Teramoto, T.; Yoshii, K.; Okumoto, T.; Tani, M.; Dote, K.

2026-10-19 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365116 medRxiv
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Background: Artificial intelligence (AI) may improve electrocardiographic differentiation of Takotsubo syndrome from acute anterior ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), but its impact on human diagnostic performance, the added value of visual explanations, and differences by reader background and experience remain uncertain. Methods: Using 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) images from two hospitals, we developed and externally validated an ensemble of three deep learning models after self-supervised pretraining and fine-tuning. The diagnostic task used ECGs recorded within 14 days after symptom onset, regardless of reperfusion status. We conducted a four-phase reader study. Phases 1-3 compared unaided interpretation, a reference sheet, and additional AI assistance. In Phase 4, readers evaluated a new ECG set after randomization to reference-sheet support alone, with AI predictions, or with AI predictions plus gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) heatmaps. Diagnostic correctness was analyzed using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Exploratory analyses examined differences by cardiologist status and experience. Results: Development and external-validation cohorts, including healthy controls, comprised 832 and 95 participants, respectively. For Takotsubo-STEMI discrimination, external-validation accuracy was 0.914, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves of 0.970 and 0.984. Seventy healthcare providers completed the reader study. The estimated probability of correct diagnosis increased from 0.632 without assistance to 0.864 with AI assistance (odds ratio [OR], 3.71; P<0.001). In randomized Phase 4, AI assistance improved accuracy vs reference-sheet support alone (OR, 4.28; 95% CI, 3.08-5.95; P<0.001), and Grad-CAM provided additional benefit (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.04-2.25; P=0.033). Exploratory analyses showed greater improvement among less experienced readers; with AI assistance, non-cardiologists outperformed cardiologists. AI-assisted readers remained less accurate overall than the model alone. Conclusions: An ECG image-based ensemble differentiated Takotsubo syndrome from anterior STEMI and improved reader accuracy. Visual explanations provided additional benefit, while experience-related differences highlight the importance of effective human-AI interaction.

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From meal text to carbohydrate to postprandial glucose rise: QLoRA fine-tuning of the Qwen3-4B language model and gradient-boosting prediction in type 2 diabetes

Bou Ali, M. N.; Lassoued, N.; Ben Amor, B.; Nasr, S.; Aouididi, M. A.

2026-10-19 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365634 medRxiv
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Background. In people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), postprandial glucose weighs on glycaemic control, and carbohydrate counting is difficult. Patients can describe their meal but rarely quantify it. Objective. To assess (1) whether a small open large language model (LLM), fine-tuned on public data, estimates the carbohydrate content of a meal described in words, and (2) what this carbohydrate adds to the prediction of the postprandial glucose rise in two public cohorts. Methods. Step 1: the Qwen3-4B LLM was fine-tuned with QLoRA on Nutrition5k dishes and compared with an automatically matched USDA food composition table and with Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B used without training, on test dishes (internal control) and on 100 real meals of ShanghaiT2DM patients, whose reference carbohydrate was computed from the recorded quantities. Step 2: the maximum glucose rise between 0 and 120 minutes ({Delta}Gmax) was predicted by personalised gradient boosting (M2), compared with a spline linear regression and with the Chronos-2 foundation model, using only information available at meal start and person-level cross-validation, in ShanghaiT2DM (people with T2D recruited in two Shanghai hospitals; carbohydrate estimated by the LLM) and CGMacros (free-living adults in Santa Barbara, California; carbohydrate entered in the dataset, no text). Step 3: the model was transferred between datasets. 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained by cluster BCa bootstrap (2,000 resamples). Results. On the 100 real meals, the carbohydrate mean absolute error (MAE) of the fine-tuned model was 12.2 [9.9, 15.2] g, almost half that of the table (22.6 g; paired difference -10.5 [-16.8, -6.0] g) and nearly a third of that of the same model without fine-tuning (34.3 g), with a bias of -10.3 g; on test dishes it was 2.2 [2.0, 2.5] g. Personalised gradient boosting (M2) reached a correlation between predicted and observed rises of r = 0.63 [0.55, 0.69] in CGMacros (1,286 meals, 45 adults) and 0.49 [0.42, 0.54] in ShanghaiT2DM (2,339 meals, 99 people with T2D), about twice the linear reference (r = 0.32 and 0.23); for a rise above 50 mg/dL, its area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.80 and 0.74, versus 0.64 and 0.68 with pre-meal glucose alone. Adding carbohydrate to pre-meal glucose changed r by 0.095 [0.068, 0.128] in CGMacros and by 0.004 [-0.010, 0.017] in ShanghaiT2DM; difference between datasets: 0.091 [0.060, 0.126]. Applied from one dataset to the other, the model lost correlation ({Delta}r = -0.11 [-0.17, -0.05] towards ShanghaiT2DM and -0.12 [-0.19, -0.04] towards CGMacros). The full "text [-&gt;] LLM [-&gt;] glucose" chain was evaluated in ShanghaiT2DM only. Conclusion. An open 4-billion-parameter LLM, fine-tuned with QLoRA on public data and usable offline, almost halves the error of carbohydrate counting for real meals described in words compared with an automatically matched table, with an underestimation of large meals. Personalised gradient boosting, based on pre-meal glucose and the person's usual response, doubles the correlation of a linear reference for predicting the glucose rise in both cohorts. Carbohydrate improved this prediction in CGMacros but not in ShanghaiT2DM; the two datasets differ in many respects, and the cause of this gap is not established.

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AI-Empowered Multimodal Data Integration and Knowledge Discovery for Pharmacovigilance

Li, Y.; Zhou, H.; Yeh, F.-Y.; Sun, Z.; Zheng, J.; Alzaidi, S.; Guan, H.; Li, J.; Seger, D. L.; Wang, L.; Li, M.; Li, X.; Chen, T.; Plasek, J. M.; Li, H.; Jiang, A.; Hong, P.; Li, F.; Zhang, W.; Cui, L.; Bates, D. W.; Zhou, L.; He, Y.; Tao, C.

2026-10-21 health informatics 10.64898/2026.10.20.26365969 medRxiv
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Biomedical artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly relies on heterogeneous data sources, yet differences in data structure, terminology, evidence quality, and provenance complicate their integration into reliable knowledge resources. Here, we develop an evidence-aware framework for processing and integrating heterogeneous pharmacovigilance data from FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) reports, biomedical literature, clinical trials, and electronic health records in Mass General Brigham. The framework combines large language model (LLM)-based information extraction, ontology-driven semantic normalization, cross-source evidence assessment, statistical and machine learning-based prioritization, and ingredient-based adverse drug event (ADE) relationship inference to transform heterogeneous evidence into a structured and evidence-based knowledge resource. The constructed knowledge system contains 11,588 drug nodes, 44,843 ingredient nodes, 3,275 ADE nodes, 993 indication nodes, and more than 2.47 million relationships, with each drug-ADE relationship assigned a confidence score. We further developed a drug-level web interface for accessing the knowledge resource and validated its utility in downstream AI tasks. Specifically, incorporating the developed knowledge resource improved the comprehensiveness, relevance, and overall quality of LLM-based drug-specific ADE synthesis and improved the precision and F1 score of clinical ADE relation extraction. These results demonstrate that AI-assisted processing combined with evidence-aware curation can transform heterogeneous biomedical evidence into reusable, AI-ready knowledge with explicit provenance and evidence strength information. The framework provides a general strategy for integrating heterogeneous biomedical data to support reproducible knowledge construction and downstream biomedical AI applications.

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From Gut to Brain: A Longitudinal Assessment of Intestinal Permeability and Immune Activation Markers in Early-Stage Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders

Jakob, L.; Mahayri, T. M.; Koutrouli, I. R. A.; Kekrtova, K.; Novakova, D.; Totkova, T.; Spaniel, F.

2026-10-19 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.10.16.26364494 medRxiv
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Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) have been linked to immune dysregulation and altered intestinal barrier function, although findings across studies remain inconsistent. The present study investigated circulating markers of intestinal permeability and immune activation in individuals with early-stage SSD and healthy controls and examined their associations with clinical outcomes. Serum concentrations of intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (iFABP), zonulin, soluble CD14 (sCD14), bactericidal/permeability-increasing protein (BPI), and lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) were measured in 36 patients with SSD at baseline and one-year follow-up and in 36 matched healthy controls. Linear mixed-effects models adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) were used to evaluate group differences and longitudinal changes. No biomarker differences between patients and controls, and no longitudinal changes within patients, remained statistically significant after correction for multiple testing. Similarly, biomarker concentrations were not associated with symptom severity, global functioning, or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Exploratory analyses identified a robust positive association between BMI and zonulin concentrations and additional associations among iFABP, LBP, and sCD14. Exploratory mixed-effects models identified a negative non-significant association between iFABP and sCD14 after adjustment for age, sex, and BMI. Overall, the findings do not support a generalized alteration of gut permeability or immune activation markers in SSD. Instead, they suggest that variation in gut-related biomarkers may be more strongly influenced by metabolic and individual factors than by diagnosis or current symptom severity.

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Spectral power and functional connectivity of resting EEG in people exposed to armed conflict and controls

Nitola-Pulido, L.; Bonilla, D. S.; Herrera Murcia, E.; Reyes Gavilan, P. A.; Santamaria-Garcia, H.

2026-10-19 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365676 medRxiv
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Exposure to armed conflict can leave persistent effects on mental health, yet its neurophysiological correlates remain poorly characterized, particularly in populations exposed to prolonged violence outside narrowly defined post traumatic stress disorder samples. Here we examined resting state electroencephalographic activity in 122 Colombian adults, including 74 participants exposed to armed conflict and 48 controls. Eyes closed EEG was analysed for 240 seconds per participant. We quantified absolute and relative spectral power across delta, theta, alpha and beta bands and regional functional connectivity using weighted phase lag index in theta, alpha and beta. Group comparisons were adjusted for age, education, sex and assessment year, with correction across 78 EEG contrasts. Median occipital and global alpha power was lower in exposed participants, although adjusted estimates were close to the null and confidence intervals were broad. Temporal theta relative power was lower in exposed participants at nominal significance, but this association did not survive Holm correction. No spectral power or regional connectivity contrast remained significant after multiple testing correction. Exploratory associations between EEG measures and MoCA performance were modest in participants with confirmed scores. These findings provide a systematic characterization of resting EEG after exposure to armed conflict in a population shaped by prolonged violence and displacement. They also indicate that large or widespread alterations in resting spectral power and connectivity were not detectable with the current sample and analytical framework, while defining candidate signals and methodological priorities for larger studies of conflict related brain health.

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Cost-Effectiveness of Expanding Housing Access for People Experiencing Homelessness and Opioid Use Disorder in California

Ling, Y.; Tsung, S.; Alarid-Escudero, F.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, J. D.; Brandeau, M. L.; Reitsma, M. B.

2026-10-19 health policy 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365505 medRxiv
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People experiencing homelessness (PEH) have substantially lower quality-adjusted life expectancy and substantially higher healthcare spending compared to housed populations. California has the largest population of PEH in the United States, and an estimated ten percent of PEH have co-occurring opioid use disorder (OUD). We developed a lifetime, individual-level microsimulation of the 18,928 PEH with OUD in California to evaluate the health and economic effects of expanding access to housing through a Housing First approach, which does not require OUD treatment or abstinence. Increases in permanent housing and shelter access were based on Los Angeles County's Measure A goals, and we accounted for both housing and healthcare costs. Expanding housing access increased mean age at death by 0.34 years, reduced fatal overdoses for the cohort by 39, and produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $31,083 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, well below conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds. We provide evidence that housing is a high-value health intervention for PEH with OUD in California. Policymakers should support Housing First programs as part of integrated responses to the intertwined crises of homelessness and opioid use.

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Impact of air pollution and tobacco smoke on the placental small non-coding RNA landscape

Falcon-Gracia, A.; Vespalcova, H.; Peligri, D.; Aguilar-Lacasana, S.; Pantano, L.; Nurtdinov, R. N.; Garcia, Z.; Dominguez, A.; Gomez-Herrera, L.; Sanchez, O.; Gascon, M.; Foraster, M.; Guigo, R.; Llurba, E.; Gomez-Roig, M. D.; Rivas, I.; Dadvand, P.; Sunyer, J.; Bustamante, M.; Cosin-Tomas, M.

2026-10-19 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365732 medRxiv
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Fetal development is highly sensitive to environmental influences, including maternal smoking during pregnancy (MSDP) and air pollution. The placenta may play a central role in mediating these effects through epigenetic mechanisms, including small non-coding RNAs (sncRNAs). While most studies have focused on microRNAs (miRNAs), other sncRNA classes remain poorly characterized. Here, we characterized the placental sncRNA landscape and investigated its associations with prenatal exposure to MSDP and air pollution. The sncRNA expression profile of 390 chorionic villi samples from the Barcelona Life Study Cohort (BiSC) was measured using small RNA sequencing and the seqBuster/seqCluster pipeline. MSDP was assessed via questionnaire, and prenatal exposure to black carbon (BC), particulate matter [&le;]2.5 m (PM2.5), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was estimated using hybrid dispersion-land-use regression (LUR) spatiotemporal models. Associations were evaluated using linear regressions adjusted for relevant covariates. We identified 979 placental sncRNA clusters, assigned primarily to miRNAs (33.2%), piRNAs (26.4%), snoRNAs (12.2%), tRFs (7.8%), and others (20.4%). MSDP was associated with the downregulation of miR-421 and the upregulation of multiple snoRNAs from the imprinted DLK1-DIO3 locus (SNORD113-4, SNORD114-2, SNORD114-3, and SNORD114-17), as well as the piR-26394. No sncRNAs remained significantly associated with air pollution after multiple-testing correction, although several miRNAs showed suggestive associations. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive characterization of placental sncRNAs and identifies previously unreported smoking-associated sncRNAs within the imprinted DLK1-DIO3 locus, expanding our understanding of placental epigenetic responses to prenatal environmental exposures.