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Allergy

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Allergy's content profile, based on 23 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Influencers, not just adverts: social media influencer exposure and tobacco use among urban youth in Kampala and Nairobi - a comparative mixed methods study

Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355037 medRxiv
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Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.

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Polygenic risk scores associate with asthma phenotypes and proteomic analyses implicate IL1R1 in two family-based studies

Lee, S.; Moll, M.; Mendez, K.; Prince, N.; Lasky-Su, J.; Lutz, S. M.; Weiss, S. T.; Lange, C.; Kelly, R. S.; Hecker, J.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355045 medRxiv
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Despite its high prevalence and the discovery of hundreds of genetic associations, the genetic determinants and heterogeneous manifestations of asthma remain incompletely understood. Incorporating polygenic risk scores (PRS) into asthma research offers a powerful approach to quantify inherited susceptibility, refine risk profiles, and advance mechanistic understanding of disease development. For this study, we leveraged whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from two family-based cohorts of childhood asthma - the Genetics of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS) and the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP) - to examine the transmission profiles of externally derived asthma PRS and their associations with clinical phenotypes in children with asthma. To further elucidate molecular mechanisms, we integrated large-scale external genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics and genetic prediction models of protein abundance in a two-step proteome-wide association study (PWAS) of asthma. Our findings provide robust evidence supporting the validity of externally derived asthma PRS (asthma PRS association p-value p={10}^{-24} [GACRS and CAMP trios combined] for the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative [GBMI]) and reveal consistent associations with spirometry measures and atopy markers across both studies, as 13 of 21 traits (62%) were significantly associated with the GBMI-PRS in the meta-analysis after multiple-testing correction. Moreover, the results of the integrative proteomic analysis implicate IL-1 signaling in the etiology of asthma, reinforcing the candidacy of IL1R1 antagonists for drug repurposing.

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A continental-scale scenario modelling framework for evaluating infant RSV immunisation strategies across Europe

Viola, E.; Mazzoli, M.; Paolotti, D.; Rizzo, A.; Zino, L.; Gozzi, N.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355338 medRxiv
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Background. The recent approval of long-acting monoclonal antibodies (la-mAbs) and a maternal vaccine (MV) in the EU enables universal RSV prevention in infants. Modelling studies are widely used to quantify the population-level impact of alternative immunisation strategies. However, existing assessments of new RSV immunisation products focus on national or sub-national settings. Methods. We developed an age-stratified, stochastic compartmental model of RSV transmission for 28 EU/EEA countries. It combines literature-based parameters on RSV natural history and product efficacy with country-specific demographic and contact patterns. After model calibration against age- and country-specific RSV hospitalisation rates, we designed scenarios for both la-mAbs and MV at four coverage levels, with and without catch-up immunisation for infants under six months at season onset. We then evaluated each scenario against a no-immunisation baseline. Results. At 95% coverage, the cross-country median reduction in RSV hospitalisations over one season in infants under 12 months is 29.9% for la-mAbs (country median range: 27.7-33.9%) and 22.4% for MV (20.0-25.6%), scaling linearly with coverage. Out of all averted hospitalisations, 78.3% (90% CI: [67.3, 92.7]%) are concentrated in infants aged 0-2 months for la-mAbs and 72.7% (90\% CI: [61.4, 88.6]%) for MV. A catch-up campaign nearly doubles the overall reduction in RSV hospitalisations. Conclusions. Despite country-specific heterogeneities, impact of la-mAbs and MV is comparable across settings and herd-immunity effects are largely negligible. This supports harmonised European guidelines on coverage targets. Seasonal catch-up campaigns emerge as an effective lever to maximise the impact of immunisation programmes.

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Plasma protein prioritisation in rheumatoid arthritis reveals druggable targets and shared biology with cardiovascular diseases

Alduhayhi, S. S.; Morris, A. P.; Zhao, S.; Bowes, J.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355332 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune inflammatory disease with complex and incompletely understood molecular mechanisms. Understanding circulating proteins associated with RA may improve understanding of disease biology and clarify its pathological links with cardiometabolic comorbidities. Methods A proteome-wide two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) drug target analysis was conducted using plasma proteins measured in 54,219 participants from the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project as exposures and RA and cardiometabolic diseases as the outcomes. Summary statistics for RA included 53,663 cases and 1,070,200 controls. Colocalisation analysis was performed to confirm shared single causal variants and prioritise RA proteins supported by both MR and colocalisation. The prioritised proteins were then evaluated in the Accelerating Medicines Partnership RA Phase II synovial single-cell dataset for cell-type expression patterns. Druggability was then assessed followed by analysis of genetic overlap between RA-associated proteins and cardiometabolic diseases. Results 37 plasma proteins had a causal effect on RA risk, supported by combined evidence from MR and conditional colocalisation. In synovial tissue, TPPP3, RARRES2, AKAP12, and GGT5 were predominantly expressed in stromal and endothelial cell clusters. Druggability assessment identified IFNGR2, IL6R, CD40, and FCGR2B as Tier 1 targets. However, several biologically relevant proteins, including RARRES2, AKAP12, TPPP3, and SNX2, had limited available druggability data. Genetic overlap analysis demonstrated shared protein signals between RA and cardiovascular diseases, including overlap of RARRES2 and TPPP3 with coronary artery disease (CAD) and FCGR2B with atrial fibrillation (AF). To approximate the therapeutic effect of target inhibition, the direction of effect estimates for proteins showing overlap between RA-CAD and RA-AF was reversed. Conclusion This study identified circulating proteins involved in RA pathogenesis and reveals shared mechanisms between RA and cardiovascular diseases. While some proteins showed clear translational potential targets, several prioritised proteins had limited available druggability information and could not be confidently classified. Addressing these gaps may help identify new targets relevant to RA management. Future work should also use phenome-wide MR studies to evaluate potential on-target adverse effects of protein inhibition across RA-CAD and RA-AF.

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Epidemiology of Cervical Precancerous Lesions: Prevalence and Predictors from Pap Smear Screening in Hawassa City Hospitals, Sidama Region, Ethiopia. Institutional-Based Cross-sectional Study

Fisshatsion, A. B.; Zewude, Y. A.; Nisro, A. M.; Abebe, R. F.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355254 medRxiv
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Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and remains a major public health challenge. In Ethiopia, it is the second leading cause of cancer deaths, with around 8,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths each year. Region?specific data on the prevalence and predictors of precancerous lesions remain scarce, yet such information is vital for guiding targeted reproductive health strategies. This study therefore examined the prevalence and predictors of cervical precancerous lesions among women aged 21-60 years undergoing Pap smear screening in public hospitals in Hawassa City, Sidama Region. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 241 women attending Pap smear screening at public hospitals in Hawassa City from March to August 2025. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via interviews and medical records. Lesions were classified based on the standardized international framework for reporting cervical cytology results from Pap smears per the Bethesda system. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors p<0.05). Result: Of 241 women screened (mean age 35.3 years), cervical epithelial abnormalities were detected in 52 (prevalence 21.6%). Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance was the most common abnormality (16.6%). Multivariable analysis showed HIV infection was significantly associated with precancerous lesions (AOR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.69-8.12, p<0.05), while hormonal contraceptive use was protective (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11-0.67, p<0.05). Conclusion: These results underscore the urgent need to strengthen cervical cancer prevention through targeted screening and early intervention. Integrating routine HIV testing with Pap smear programs would be especially valuable. Health authorities should expand accessible screening for women aged 21-60, with particular attention to those living with HIV, to help reduce the burden of precancerous lesions.

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Computational and Experimental Antibody Affinity and Diagnostic Accuracy Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 SD2 Major Disulfide Loop Analog

Pollo, B. A. L. V.; Perias, G. A.; Aguimatang, R. H.; Espiritu, A. P.; Ching, D.; Idolor, M. I.; King, R. A.; Climacosa, F. M.; Caoili, S. E.

2026-06-08 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.05.26353587 medRxiv
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Introduction: Synthetic oligopeptides provide a rapid and cost-efficient approach to developing antibodies and diagnostics for emerging viral variants. Methods: This study computationally and experimentally characterized a synthetic peptide analog of the SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomain 2 major disulfide loop (SD2MDL), designated S621 (CPVAIHADQLTPTWRVYSTC). Binding affinity was computationally estimated using the Heuristic Affinity Prediction Tool for Immune Complexes (HAPTIC), while experimental validation was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with rabbit-derived antipeptide antibodies. Clinical diagnostic accuracy testing was done using plasma samples from RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients and pre-COVID-19 controls. Results: S621 demonstrated nanomolar binding affinity (Kdapp = 1.14 nM) and high avidity (3.67 nM), closely matching HAPTIC predictions (3.54 nM). Diagnostic evaluation yielded a sensitivity of 89.92% and specificity of 27.79%, corresponding to an overall accuracy of 71.79%. Discussion: These findings demonstrate that a single synthetic peptide derived from a conserved spike subdomain can function as a high-affinity surrogate for full-length antigens, supporting its potential application in rapid peptide-based immunodiagnostics.

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Age-specific burden of medically attended respiratory virus disease in high-income countries: a scoping review and meta-analysis

Gupta, M.; Zoega, H.; Stopard, I. J.; Liu, B.; Macartney, K.; Wood, J. G.; Hogan, A. B.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26354660 medRxiv
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Introduction: Respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity. Newly available vaccines to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and encouraging clinical progress on vaccines for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and parainfluenza (PIV) could reduce the disease burden beyond existing influenza and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation programs. However, evidence on the contribution of these viruses to respiratory disease burden across the lifespan remains limited. Methods: We reviewed studies from 01/2002-11/2025 reporting age-stratified, medically attended cases of influenza, and at least one of RSV, hMPV, or PIV, in high-income countries, excluding periods substantially overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Using only studies that tested for all four viruses, we estimated the age-specific proportion of cases that were non-influenza (total across RSV, hMPV and PIV) compared to influenza using a mixed-effects logistic regression model. Results: Following exclusions and screening, 61 studies were included in the primary analysis comprising >500,000 detections of the four viruses. We found that a substantial proportion of medically attended respiratory illness in infants and young children was due to PIV, hMPV and RSV, rather than influenza, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 90.2% (95% CI 85.9-93.2%) in young infants aged 0-6 months. The converse was true for school-aged children, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 34.8% (95% CI 26.5-44.2%) in children aged 5-18 years. In adults aged 65+ years, non-influenza causes of medically attended disease were common at 60.2% (95% CI 50.0-69.5%). Restricting to studies reporting hospitalised cases (n=19) produced broadly similar age-specific trends in relative virus burden contributions. Discussion: We highlight the significant burden of medically attended illness due to PIV, hMPV and RSV across ages, particularly in infant and preschool-aged children and older adults, supporting the need for effective vaccines targeting this burden.

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Alcohol Consumption Patterns and Sociodemographic Correlates Among US Adults with Cardiovascular Disease: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of All of Us and NHANES

yang, q.; yu, j.; zhao, h.; zou, m.; sun, y.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355052 medRxiv
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This cross-sectional study aimed to examine the prevalence of alcohol use and its sociodemographic correlates among adults with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We analyzed data from two large US cohorts: the All of Us Research Program (2017-2023) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2016). Both CVD diagnosis and past-year alcohol consumption were self-reported. Risky drinking was defined as exceeding moderate drinking or binge drinking (All of Us), or moderate/heavy drinking (NHANES). Multivariable logistic regression was used to exam associations with sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Among 32,788 current drinkers with CVD in the All of Us cohort, 15% exceeded moderate drinking thresholds and 26% reported binge drinking. Older age, female sex, and higher socioeconomic status were inversely associated with risky drinking, while smoking was positively associated. In NHANES, moderate drinking rose from 47.3% to 57.2% and heavy drinking from 6.7% to 7.2%. Moderate/heavy drinking was positively associated with age <65 but inversely with age [&ge;]65. Higher education and income were linked to moderate drinking, while current smoking was strongly associated with heavy drinking. These results highlight the need to integrate holistic screening for alcohol use, tobacco use, and social context into routine cardiovascular care.

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Investigation of the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the post pandemic time - Insights into the reason for the sustained spread despite the establishment of population immunity

Yi, B.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355009 medRxiv
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In spite of well-established global immune landscape, SARS-CoV-2 is still able to further spread and continue causing infection waves. The current understanding about the reason behind is limited, and it is still difficult to predict the evolution or spreading tread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate whether the establishment of population immunity has changed the virus evolution or spreading pattern. In this investigation, one overall analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in the past several years have been carried out through one thorough genomic epidemiology study, with Germany being chosen as one representative location in view of the systemic efforts for genomic surveillance. The growth advantage of a few predominant variants in its early spreading period has been evaluated through a logistic regression model. The results have revealed that the major circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants since 2023 are mainly derived from the Omicron BA.2 family. Since middle of 2024, most predominant variants were produced primarily through recombination, indicating that the evolution derived from recombination might be the major driving force for the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 despite the existence of population immunity. Furthermore, the lower growth advantage of recently emerged variants might possibly lead to a tread of reduction in the frequency of infection wave. The information revealed from this investigation suggests that although short-term spreading tread can be affected by specific virus feature as well as local immunity landscape, the long-term spreading tread is mainly decided by the genomic diversity of the viruses, and can be predicted through phylogenetic and genomic epidemiology investigation. The results have emphasized the importance of maintaining the efforts for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, which is essential from both medical and research perspectives.

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Comparative Evaluation of Mosquito Repellent Products in South Asia and North America: Efficacy, Safety, and Public Health Implications

Sahal, K.; Amin, S. M. A.; Mostafa, T.; Wang, S.; Colucci, B.; Shafoyat, M. U.; Yuan, Z. -m.; Cheng, G.

2026-06-08 toxicology 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355094 medRxiv
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Mosquito-borne diseases continue to pose significant public health challenges worldwide, particularly in densely populated regions of South Asia and parts of North America experiencing increasing vector prevalence due to climate and environmental changes. Commercial mosquito repellents are widely used as a primary preventive measure; however, their efficacy, safety, and public health impacts vary depending on formulation, active ingredients, environmental conditions, and user practices. This study presents a comparative evaluation of commonly used mosquito repellent products in South Asia and North America, including coils, vaporizers, sprays, creams, and Natural repellents. The research aims to assess repellent efficacy against major mosquito vectors, evaluate potential health and respiratory effects associated with prolonged exposure, and analyze consumer awareness and usage patterns across different regions. Laboratory-based efficacy testing and field observations were conducted to compare protection duration, repellency rate, and environmental performance under varying climatic conditions. Safety assessments included analysis of chemical composition, indoor air quality impact, and reported adverse health symptoms among users. The findings indicate significant differences in effectiveness and safety profiles among product categories and geographical regions. Synthetic repellents generally demonstrated higher repellency duration, while herbal formulations showed improved safety and environmental compatibility. The study highlights the importance of standardized evaluation protocols, regulatory oversight, and public awareness in promoting safe and effective mosquito control strategies. These findings may support policymakers, healthcare professionals, and manufacturers in improving mosquito repellent technologies and reducing the burden of mosquito-borne diseases globally.

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Global practices in paediatric olfactory dysfunction: a cross-sectional survey of paediatric ENT surgeons

Spencer, G. M.; Karim, K.; Dzioba, A.; Graham, M. E.; You, P.; Hummel, T.; Gellrich, J.; Coyle, P.; Burns, H.; Peer, S.; Zawawi, F.; Lechien, J. R.; Schriever, V. A.; Bhargava, E. K.; Whitcroft, K. L.

2026-06-06 otolaryngology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354942 medRxiv
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Background: Olfactory dysfunction (OD) in children remains underdiagnosed and poorly characterised. Despite its known impacts on nutrition, quality of life, safety awareness, and psychosocial development, no standardised diagnostic or management pathway currently exists for paediatric OD. This study aimed to characterise global practice patterns and identify diagnostic and therapeutic challenges unique to paediatric care. Methodology/Principal: A 44-item cross-sectional online survey was distributed to a verified international network of paediatric otolaryngologists across 36 countries via a closed professional platform. The survey assessed five domains: diagnostic practices, management protocols, technology and innovation, education and training, and barriers to effective care. Regional grouping was used to facilitate meaningful statistical comparisons. Categorical variables were evaluated using chi-square tests, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals reported for significant findings. Results: Of 351 potential participants, 167 responded (47.6% response rate). Most respondents (83%) reported seeing children with OD, yet 95% saw fewer than ten such patients annually. Psychophysical testing was never performed by 54.8% of respondents, while 88.4% routinely ordered cross-sectional imaging. Testing frequency increased significantly with patient age (Cochran's Q p<0.001). The most common barriers to objective testing were insufficient training (44.3%), time constraints (29.9%), and funding limitations (28.1%). Multidisciplinary collaboration was negligible. Significant regional variation was observed across most practice domains. Conclusions: Paediatric OD care is characterised by functional underinvestigation, fragmented multidisciplinary collaboration, and systemic educational gaps. These findings support urgent development of standardised clinical guidelines, age-appropriate validated assessment tools, and formal interdisciplinary care pathways.

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Polypore Mushroom Mycelia for Treatment of Active COVID-19 Infection: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Saxe, G.; Shubov, A.; Smith, C. N.; Golshan, S.; Shekhtman, T.; Wilson, S.; Slater, D.; Bair, Z. J.; Beathard, C.; Davis, R. A.; MacElhern, L.; Kao, L. K.; Senowitz, P.; Gosnell, N.; Buchholz, D.; Aguilar-Carreno, H.

2026-06-09 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354267 medRxiv
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Use of fungal mycelia, which has antiviral properties, constitutes a novel strategy for addressing existing and newly emerging viral diseases. We evaluated safety and feasibility of fungal mycelia (Fomitopsis officinalis and Trametes versicolor, FoTv) for treatment of COVID-19 and assessed its antiviral effects and potential to reduce symptoms. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dual site (UCSD/UCLA medical centers) clinical trial we examined non-hospitalized patients who contracted mild-to-moderate COVID-19 [&le;] 96 hours, and experienced symptom onset [&le;] nine days, before enrollment. FoTv was safe, well-tolerated, and feasible for COVID-19 treatment. Minor differences in biochemical markers were observed between groups (26 FoTv, 24 Placebo). FoTv significantly reduced the number and severity of symptoms, particularly sore throat/cough, and in vitro SARS-CoV-2 (pseudovirus) cellular infection. In conclusion, FoTv was safe and reduced COVID-19 symptoms and cellular viral infection. Future studies should investigate therapeutic benefits of fungal mycelia for SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. Clinicaltrials.gov registration:NCT04667247.

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Global Health Injustice From Climate Change Driven By Consumption

Rupcic, L.; Yoo, D.; Levasseur, A.; Alexandre, C.; Laurent, A.; Jolliet, O.

2026-06-12 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355381 medRxiv
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Climate change imposes unequal health burdens from heat and cold, disproportionately harming vulnerable nations least responsible for emissions. A framework to quantitatively attribute this damage to different countries' consumption patterns has been missing. We developed a global framework linking consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions to country-specific health burdens, measured in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Our results quantify the profound scale of this externalized harm. For example, average North American consumption imposes a global health burden of 34 days of healthy life per person per year, without net damage suffered. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa endures 25 days per person per year despite minimal emissions. The resulting Health Injustice Index provides a powerful instrument for climate accountability, reframing responsibility in terms of tangible human health impacts.

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Physical activity, fatty acids, and MASLD risk: Behavioural and metabolic factors jointly shaping liver health in populations

Chen, F.; You, R.; Liu, Y.; Yin, Y.; Liu, A.; Deng, L.; Xie, B.; Fan, J.; Wang, W.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354982 medRxiv
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Background and Aims: MASLD has become the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally. Although MVPA and plasma fatty acids have been individually studied in relation to metabolic health, their independent and combined associations with MASLD incidence remain unclear. We aimed to investigate these associations. Methods: This study included 51,717 UK Biobank participants free of liver disease at baseline, with MVPA measured using wrist-worn accelerometers and plasma fatty acids quantified via NMR. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models and restricted cubic splines were used. Results: Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 472 incident cases were identified. In fully adjusted models, meeting recommended MVPA levels together with higher n-6 PUFA concentrations was associated with a 71% lower risk (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.45). The MVPA-MASLD association was nonlinear, with risk reduction plateauing at approximately 189 minutes per week. Higher n-6 PUFA was associated with reduced risk, whereas n-3 PUFA showed no significant association. Conclusions: These findings suggest that behavioral and metabolic factors may jointly influence MASLD risk. Further studies in diverse populations are needed to confirm these associations.

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Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential Refines Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Stages 0-3

Lu, J.; Sun, S.; Deng, Z.; Wang, S.; Wei, C.; Jiang, S.; Li, W.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354963 medRxiv
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Background: Chronic low-grade inflammation drives cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), an age-related driver of systemic inflammation, is linked to several cardiometabolic disorders. However, whether CHIP modifies CKM progression and contributes to heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk within the CKM framework remains uninvestigated. Methods: This cohort study included 307,025 UK Biobank participants at CKM stages 0-3 free of baseline CVD. CHIP status was identified via whole-exome sequencing (WES). The association between CHIP and baseline CKM severity was examined, along with the independent and joint effects of CHIP and CKM stages on incident CVD risk. The joint effects of CHIP and polygenic risk scores (PRS) were further assessed, and the incremental predictive value of incorporating CHIP into the AHA PREVENT equations was evaluated. Results: CHIP carriers were more likely to present with advanced CKM stages [OR 1.14 (1.09-1.20), P < 0.001] and exhibited higher incident CVD risk during follow-up [HR 1.13 (1.08-1.18), P < 0.001]. Significant joint effects between CHIP and CKM stages were observed, with the highest risk among CHIP carriers at CKM stage 3 [HR 1.63 (1.50-1.78), P < 0.001]. Large or multiple CHIP mutations conferred greater hazards, with distinct gene-specific effects observed. Moreover, CHIP and high genetic risk also jointly amplified CVD susceptibility. Most importantly, incorporating CHIP into AHA PREVENT significantly improved risk discrimination. Conclusions: CHIP is a significant risk factor associated with more advanced CKM stages and amplifies incident CVD risk. Integrating CHIP into existing prevention strategies may refine CVD risk stratification.

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Exploring emergency department attendance patterns during the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 in Germany

Charfeddine, N.; Schranz, M.; Schlump, C.; Rupprecht, M.; Ullrich, A.; Diercke, M.; AKTIN Research Group, ; Estupinan Mendez, J.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355151 medRxiv
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Background: Mass gathering events (MGEs) are associated with several public health challenges and may cause a strain on healthcare services. Literature findings on the impact of MGEs on emergency departments (EDs) are heterogeneous. Objectives: To examine shifts in ED attendance characteristics during a major sporting tournament, namely the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 held in Germany. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study using ED data from the Emergency Department Data Registry. We compared baseline ED attendance characteristics between the tournament and the reference period, defined as two weeks before and two weeks after the tournament, and between Germany game days and non-Germany game days. Hourly attendance patterns were analysed for all Germany games using a reference range. Results: We included data from 41 EDs, totalling 253,493 attendances during the study period. A 1.57% increase in attendance was observed during the tournament compared to the reference period, with baseline characteristics remaining similar. The median daily attendance within all EDs was slightly lower on Germany game days (4066) compared to non-Germany game days (4128). Modest changes were observed in the hourly attendance on Germany game days, most notable during the last Germany game where a decrease in attendance below the reference range extended over three hours. Conclusions: The observed shifts in ED attendance were minimal, suggesting that no major changes of public health relevance occurred in ED attendance during the tournament. We highlight the utility of using ED data for monitoring and for enhancing the understanding of the public health risks and challenges associated with MGEs.

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Serological thresholds of risk reduction for infant group B streptococcus disease

Cantrell, L.; Karampatsas, K.; Andrews, N.; Beach, S.; Bentley, E.; Berardi, A.; Bijlsma, M. W.; Cagil Kocana, C.; Daniel, O.; French, N.; Hall, T.; Izu, A.; Khalil, A.; Kwatra, G.; Kyohere, M.; Madhi, S. A.; Mboizi, R.; Miselli, F.; Nielsen, M.; Thorn, N.; van de Beek, D.; Walker, K.; Heath, P. T.; Le Doare, K.; Voysey, M.; PREPARE WP3 Study Group,

2026-06-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26353453 medRxiv
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Vaccines to prevent infant group B streptococcus (GBS) disease are advancing, with licensure likely based on safety and immunologic endpoints rather than clinical efficacy data. This approach requires robust, generalisable serological thresholds of risk reduction (SToRRs). We combined data from six case-control studies in Europe and Africa to define SToRRs for early-onset (EOD) and late-onset (LOD) GBS disease. Across diverse epidemiological and healthcare settings, anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations were consistently higher in infants who remained disease free than in those who developed disease. Higher antibody concentrations were required to reduce the risk of EOD than LOD, and higher concentrations were required for serotype Ia than for serotype III. This study provides a quantitative framework to support correlates-based evaluation and potential licensure of maternal GBS vaccines.

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Early assessment of potential airline-mediated importation risk during the 2026 DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak

Kinoshita, R.; Suzuki, M.; Yoneoka, D.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354569 medRxiv
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During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.

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Next-Generation Skin Cancer Detection Using Efficient Fuzzy Fusion of Genomic and Imaging Data

Molla, A. R.; Maity, A.; Saha, S.; Bhattacharya, R.; Chakraborty, A.; Biswas, S.; Nath, S.

2026-06-08 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355024 medRxiv
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Skin cancer requires early detection for improved survival rates. Most existing methods rely on deep learning based image classification, which is affected by visual similarity among lesions. Fewer studies use Gene Expression (GE) analysis, which captures molecular characteristics but lacks structural and visual details. To overcome limitations of individual modalities, this paper proposes a multimodal framework integrating dermoscopic images and GE profiles for skin cancer classification. EfficientNet and logistic regression are used for image based analysis and genomic skin lesion profiling, respectively, followed by fuzzy rule based decision systems to reduce uncertainty within individual modalities. Finally, fuzzy fusion combines predictions from both modalities using uncertainty based weighting of classifier outputs. The experimental findings show that both the image based and GE based classification models individually achieved accuracies of nearly 92%. However, the integration of prediction results through the proposed fuzzy fusion strategy further enhanced the classification performance, achieving an overall accuracy of 94.25%. The results obtained outperform contemporary methods, highlighting the effectiveness of combining complementary multimodal information compared with single modality approaches.

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Polygenic risk of cardiovascular disease manifests in cardiac structure and function

Felici, B.; Ritchie, S. C.; Khullar, S.; Foguet, C.; Persyn, E.; Manikpurage, H. D.; Liu, Y.; Lambert, S. A.; Ip, S.; Rudd, J. H. F.; Inouye, M.

2026-06-08 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.06.07.26354998 medRxiv
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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are highly heritable, but pathogenesis at the organ and physiological level is still poorly defined. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which estimate individual genetic susceptibility to a disease, may allow for the identification of associated abnormal organ structures. Ultimately, identifying where cardiovascular polygenic risk manifests can guide early interventions, shape mechanistic hypotheses, and motivate prevention trials for cardiac remodelling. This study investigated the association between PRSs for five common CVDs [heart failure (HF), coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation (AF), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and ischaemic stroke (IS)] and 28 imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs) from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging of ~62,000 participants in UK Biobank. To investigate the cardiac features associated with elevated polygenic risk of CVDs, we tested CVD PRSs against cardiac IDPs and identified 97 significant associations (FDR [&le;] 0.05). We further identified 32 significant putative mediators between CVD PRSs and incident disease events, revealing that across CVDs, polygenic risk manifested as distinct patterns in cardiac structures. HF implicated all cardiac chambers, including left ventricular and left atrial dysfunction alongside enlarged aorta. AF was characterised by biatrial enlargement and reduced ejection fractions, most prominently in the left atrium but also involving left ventricular wall thickness. IS exhibited left ventricular hypertrophy and left atrial dysfunction, while CAD predominantly involved left ventricular hypertrophy. AAA was primarily characterised by enlarged descending aorta. Overall, cardiac IDPs mediated a substantial proportion of polygenic risk for CVDs, in particular for HF. Taken together, our results show that cardiac structure and function lie on the pathway between polygenic risk and cardiovascular events.