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Allergy

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Allergy's content profile, based on 25 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Thermal variability and the geography of optimal temperature for child survival: childhood respiratory-infection mortality in 171 countries: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 and the C-LSAT high-resolution climate dataset

Li, D.; Liu, J.; Sun, S.; Chen, H.; Shen, W.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.

2026-09-02 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361864 medRxiv
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Background In adults, cold-attributable mortality exceeds heat-attributable mortality roughly 17-fold. Child-specific evidence has begun to emerge only recently - a nationwide Brazilian case-crossover study located the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for under-five deaths, and a 56-country survey-based analysis linked monthly temperature anomalies to under-five mortality - but no multi-country, climate-zone-resolved estimate of the childhood respiratory-infection MMT exists, and whether temperature variability is independently associated with childhood respiratory mortality at the global scale is unknown. We quantified both. Methods We combined Global Burden of Disease 2023 mortality estimates, lower respiratory infection (LRI) deaths at ages 0-19 years and asthma deaths at ages 0-24 years, 171 countries, 1990-2023 - with 0.5 deg monthly land temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) fields from C-LSAT/C-LDTR (1901-2023). Four exposure dimensions (annual mean, DTR, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. A quadratic term in mean temperature located the MMT, with percentile confidence intervals from a 300-replication country-cluster bootstrap. Future-exposure leads, country-level detrending, and permutation tests assessed contemporaneous causality, applied to both the linear coefficients and the quadratic term generating the MMT; national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV3) coverage and ambient PM2.5 exposure series were added as time-varying mechanistic covariates. Results The childhood LRI MMT was 17.1 C (95% CI 14.7-19.8), the 36th percentile of the annual-temperature distribution; zone estimates were 24.7 C in tropical and 15.8 C in subtropical countries, with weak temperate and no subarctic identification. The quadratic term underpinning the MMT, however, failed both falsification checks - future temperatures reproduced the U-shape and country-level detrending erased it - so these MMT values describe a trend-level geographic pattern of the annual construct rather than a contemporaneous dose-response. Interannual temperature variability was positively associated with LRI (+0.278, 95% CI 0.102-0.454; p = 0.002) and asthma mortality (+0.836, 95% CI 0.447-1.226; p = 2.6 x 10^-5) per 1 C, but future-exposure models returned nearly identical significant coefficients and detrending erased significance, supporting only a trend-level association; adjustment for national PCV3 coverage and PM2.5 exposure left these estimates essentially unchanged. Annual mean temperature was likewise inversely associated with both outcomes at the trend level; DTR and seasonal amplitude showed no independent within-country effects. Conclusions This study provides the first multi-country, climate-zone-resolved geography of the optimal temperature for childhood respiratory survival, spanning 171 countries; because the underlying quadratic association is trend-level, the estimates are directional. The observed variability-mortality associations are trend-level signals rather than contemporaneous causal evidence; daily-scale, child-specific designs are required to determine whether short-term thermal variability affects paediatric respiratory mortality.

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Impaired memory B-cell formation after mRNA-based COVID-19 booster vaccination in patients with inflammatory bowel disease receiving anti-TNF treatment

Gill, P. A.; Bradbury, L. R.; Wang, A.; Hogg, J.; Demase, K.; McKenzie, J.; Fryer, H. A.; Geers, D.; Zaeck, L. M.; Boo, I.; Hogarth, M. P.; Drummer, H. E.; de Vries, R. D.; O'Hehir, R. E.; Sparrow, M. P.; van Zelm, M. C.

2026-09-02 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26359302 medRxiv
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Background: Patients receiving anti-TNF treatment for chronic inflammatory disease display impaired antibody responses, but it remains unclear how immune memory formation is affected. We evaluated antibody responses and memory B cells (Bmem) after COVID-19 booster vaccination in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients receiving anti-TNF treatment. Methodology: Blood was sampled at baseline, 1, and 6 months after WH1/BA.5 bivalent or XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccination from 27 IBD patients receiving intravenous anti-TNF and 44 controls. Neutralizing antibodies were measured using an infectious virus assay. SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD)-specific serum IgG was quantified by ELISA, and RBD-specific Bmem were immunophenotyped by flow cytometry using recombinant proteins from ancestral, Omicron BA.1, BA.5, XBB.1.5, and JN.1 variants. Results: Serum IgG to vaccine RBD and neutralizing antibodies in patients increased pre to 1 month post-vaccination, but were lower than controls. Ancestral-, BA.5- and XBB.1.5-specific Bmem increased after vaccination but were significantly lower in patients than controls. Within RBD-specific Bmem, frequencies of recently activated CD21lo cells were increased after vaccination, and were higher in patients than controls. Fewer antigen-specific Bmem in patients expressed IgG4, and more expressed IgG3 or IgD following vaccination. Following vaccination, more RBD-specific Bmem recognized multiple viral variants. However, patients had fewer Bmem that could bind to subvariants than controls. Conclusion: Antibody and Bmem responses to COVID-19 booster vaccination in anti-TNF-treated IBD patients displayed reduced capacity, durability and cross-reactivity, suggesting impaired immune memory for protection against breakthrough infection. This supports the recommendation for annual booster vaccination to prevent severe disease and viral spread.

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Immune Checkpoint Blockade Modifies Drug-Associated Toxicity Across Phenotypes and Time

Mukherjee, E. M.; Asiaee, A.; Park, D.; Krantz, M. S.; Stone, C. A.; Martin-Pozo, M.; Phillips, E. J.

2026-09-02 dermatology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361880 medRxiv
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Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) produce diverse immune toxicities, but whether checkpoint blockade also modifies associations between other drugs and adverse events is poorly understood. Objective: To define ICI-associated toxicity organization and determine whether drug-associated adverse events and onset vary with ICI exposure and checkpoint pathway. Design and Setting: Cross-sectional analysis of deduplicated FAERS reports from 2016 through 2025; analyses performed in 2026. Participants: Among 13,701,106 deduplicated reports, 2,365,269 were cancer associated and 256,940 contained an ICI. Median age among cancer reports with observed age was 66 years (IQR, 56-75 years); 1,031,999 (43.6%) were female and 1,003,154 (42.4%) were male. Exposures: ICI exposure in any reported drug role, individual primary-suspect drugs, and checkpoint-pathway exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reporting odds ratios (ORs), cross-organ adverse-event communities, adjusted primary-suspect drug x ICI interaction ORs for Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN), drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS), acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP), interstitial nephritis, drug-induced liver injury (DILI), and vomiting (VOM), and accelerated failure-time model time ratios for documented onset. Results: Of 3001 eligible Preferred Terms in cancer-associated reports, 2091 differed at a false discovery rate (FDR) less than .05. Four cross-organ toxicity communities were identified. Of 138 eligible drug-phenotype pairs, 65 had FDR-significant interactions, including moxifloxacin-SJS/TEN amplification (interaction OR, 101.72; 95% CI, 39.11-264.55), enfortumab vedotin-SJS/TEN attenuation (interaction OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.13-0.23), and omeprazole-interstitial nephritis amplification (interaction OR, 10.35; 95% CI, 7.62-14.05). Among 60,324 reports contributing to temporal analyses, ICI exposure was associated with longer adjusted documented time to onset for 5 of 6 phenotypes (time ratios, 1.37-1.59) but not AGEP (time ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.67-1.46). Temporal associations also differed across checkpoint pathways. Conclusions and Relevance: ICIs were associated with a structured cross-organ toxicity landscape, phenotype-specific modification of drug-associated adverse events, and distinct temporal patterns across checkpoint pathways. These findings support checkpoint blockade as a modifier of drug-associated toxicity and motivate longitudinal and mechanistic validation.

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Clinical Spectrum, Treatments and Outcomes of VEXAS Syndrome: A Multicenter Belgian Cohort

Funaro, L.; Naesens, L.; Betrains, A.; Vokaer, B.; Couturier, B.; Malaise, O.; Vertenoeil, G.; Lambert, F.; Lattenist, R.; Vandergheynst, F.; Wolff, L.

2026-08-31 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361409 medRxiv
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Background VEXAS syndrome is a late onset autoinflammatory disease caused by somatic UBA1 mutations and characterized by heterogeneous systemic and hematologic manifestations. We aimed to describe all identified Belgian cases through a national multicenter cohort. Methods We conducted a retrospective study across four Belgian tertiary centers. Clinical, biological, genetic, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected using standardized anonymized case report forms. Analyses were descriptive. Results Twenty-one male patients were identified between January 2018 and May 2025. General symptoms such as Fatigue, weight loss and sweating occurred in 95% of cases. The most frequent manifestations were cutaneous (85.7%), hematologic (76.2%), articular (66.7%), thromboembolic (57.1%), chondritis (42.9%), ophthalmologic (38.1%), pulmonary (38.1%). Other manifestations also included vasculitis (61.9%). At diagnosis, 95% had anemia, macrocytic in 57%, and 28.6% had thrombocytopenia. Corticosteroids were the main first line therapy. Second line treatments included anti IL 6 agents (46.7%), JAK inhibitors (20%), and azacitidine (14.3%). Complete remission occurred in 50% of patients receiving anti IL 6 therapy and in 33% treated with either JAK inhibitors or azacitidine. Two patients underwent allogeneic stem cell transplantation, one died from infectious complications. Twenty six infectious episodes were recorded, including opportunistic infections. Six patients (28.6%) died during follow-up, four from infectious complications. Conclusion This first Belgian national cohort confirms the clinical heterogeneity of VEXAS syndrome and highlights substantial infectious morbidity and mortality. Access to targeted second-line therapies, particularly anti IL-6 agents and JAK inhibitors, remains challenging despite apparent clinical benefit.

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Inferential instability of national sugar and sweetener availability as an indicator of adult obesity trajectories: A global within-between panel audit

Nkulikwa, Z. A.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.25.26360957 medRxiv
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The analysis uses a global 2010-2023 panel comprising 3,038 economy-years across 217 economies. It explicitly separates between-economy and within-economy estimands and tests the longitudinal interpretation using an identical-sample temporal analysis with cluster-aware coefficient contrasts, a formal isometric log-ratio sensitivity analysis, independent fixed-effects replication, and wild-cluster-bootstrap inference. The central finding is deliberately calibrated: cross-economy agreement cannot validate national sugar availability for longitudinal obesity surveillance. The study identifies temporal and construct instability without claiming that sugar is protective or that the mechanisms producing the instability have been identified. The manuscript aligns well with PLOS ONEs emphasis on technically sound, transparent and reproducible research of broad relevance. All data required to reproduce the findings, complete metadata, executable code, full-precision results, diagnostic outputs and a completed STROBE checklist are provided as S1-S5. Figures are provided separately as compliant 350-dpi TIFF files. The study used only publicly available, aggregated economy-year statistics and involved no individual participants, identifiable information or biological specimens; institutional ethics review and consent were therefore not required. This is original work; it is not under consideration elsewhere, and the sole author has approved the submission and accepts responsibility for its content. Funding and competing-interest declarations will be entered accurately in the submission portal. An Academic Editor with expertise in nutritional epidemiology, global health metrics, longitudinal panel methods, or food-system surveillance would be well placed to assess the work.

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Decoding Humoral Immunity During Acute MPXV Infection via Comprehensive Serological Analysis and Antigen-agnostic Monoclonal Antibody Profiling

Zhang, Y.; Fan, J.; Wang, J.; Jiang, N.; Wan, Y.; Meng, L.; Qi, W.; Cheng, X.; Luo, K.; Zhang, T.; Li, R.; Chen, H.; Zhao, R.; Ren, Y.; Zhang, W.; Zhu, Z.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.21.26360138 medRxiv
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Dissecting the complexity of antibody responses in orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infected individuals is essential for elucidating protective mechanisms and identifying candidate protective immunogens. Here, we profiled the acute humoral response in 51 mpox cases, showing distinct IgG trajectories among multiple antigens alongside the rise of plasma neutralizing activities to plateau within 6 weeks after symptom onset. Utilizing a single-cell transcriptomic and BCR sequencing based antigen-agnostic mAb isolation workflow, we further generated monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from 254 expanded peripheral B cell clones of 3 patients. We discerned 97 specific mAbs recognizing at least 12 different OPXV proteins via integrated screening approaches, which comprised neutralizing antibodies binding unconventional viral targets and antibodies exhibiting extraordinary in vitro and in vivo anti-OPXV effects. The number of OPXV-specific mAbs recovered per donor reflected the percentage of expanded clones among circulating B cells. More interestingly, we demonstrated that the inferred unmutated common ancestors (UCAs) of neutralizing antibody clones did not necessarily react with OPXV, implying that OPXV neutralizing antibodies might frequently originate from B cells previously activated by unknown antigens. Our work establishes an efficient workflow for antigen-agnostic isolation of pathogen specific mAbs and reveals previously unclarified features of antibody responses induced by acute MPXV infection.

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Early-Life Wildfire Smoke Exposure Is Associated with Long-Term Systemic Immune Remodeling and Epigenetic Reprogramming

Layman, C. E.; Morrow, D.; Wheeler, K.; Caron, T. J.; Davis, B. A.; Bergstrom, P.; Vigh-Conrad, K.; Anderson, T. J.; McElfresh, G. W.; Sterner, K. N.; Sadoughi, B.; Snyder-Mackler, N.; Hansen, S. G.; Bimber, B. N.; Lancioni, C.; Carbone, L.; Okhovat, M.

2026-08-29 immunology 10.64898/2026.08.27.742220 medRxiv
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Wildfire smoke is an escalating global public health threat exposing millions of people, including children, to hazardous air pollution each year. Although wildfire smoke toxicants have been linked to a range of adverse health outcomes, including immune dysregulation, the long-term consequences of real-world pediatric wildfire smoke exposure on health and development remain largely unknown. To investigate the persistent effects of early-life exposure on immune health, here we leveraged a cohort of rhesus macaques that experienced nine consecutive days of hazardous wildfire smoke exposure in infancy during the 2020 Oregon Labor Day wildfires. By integrating ex vivo immune stimulations, multiplex cytokine profiling, single-cell transcriptomics, and genome-wide DNA methylation profiling, we identified persistent immunological consequences across molecular and functional levels. We found that a single severe postnatal exposure, in the first three months of life, was associated with persistent change in the innate immune response, including reduced pro-inflammatory cytokine response to a bacterial endotoxin, with subtle but consistent transcriptional changes in myeloid cells, particularly among males. Wildfire smoke exposure was also associated with changes in proportion of B and T/NK cells, and within the T/NK cell compartment, exposed animals exhibited an expansion of cytotoxic cells. Consistent with this, CD8+ T cells displayed extensive transcriptional remodeling and shifted toward more differentiated effector states, with the greatest differentiation observed in animals exposed at the youngest ages. Genome-wide DNA methylation profiling identified smoke-associated methylation changes consistent with acceleration of epigenetic aging, as well as persistent epigenetic alterations impacting genes involved in oxidative stress responses, innate immunity, T cell differentiation, and hematopoiesis. These findings demonstrate that a single severe wildfire smoke exposure during a critical developmental window is associated with extensive immune and epigenetic remodeling that persist years after exposure, providing new insight into the long-term biological consequences of early-life wildfire smoke exposure.

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Warming, thermal variability, and the 96% decline in childhood respiratory-infection mortality in China: a national time-series analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and the C-LSAT high-resolution climate dataset

Li, D.; Miao, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, H.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.

2026-09-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361879 medRxiv
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Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.

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Both ageing and frailty status impact vaccine-induced transcriptomic profiles and subsequent humoral immunity: results from the VITAL cohort

Joshi, M.; Carre, C.; Cevirgel, A.; Bijvank, E.; Chabaud-Riou, M.; Courtois, V.; Chautard, E.; Larocque, D.; Burny, W.; Beckers, L.; Buisman, A.-M.; Rots, N.; van der Heiden, M.; van Beek, J.; van Sleen, Y.; van Baarle, D.

2026-08-31 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361408 medRxiv
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Vaccine responses vary across individuals due to differences in ageing and health status. Using transcriptomic profiling, we analyzed early gene expression profiles after influenza (QIV) followed by pneumococcal (PCV13) vaccination in 148 participants spanning young, middle-aged, and older adults. The two vaccines induced distinct immune signatures: QIV elicited innate and interferon immune activation, while PCV13 triggered inflammation-based responses. Older adults showed weaker but similar transcriptomic profiles compared to young adults. Among older adults, frailty, in addition to age, was strongly associated with reduced innate responses. In addition, we identified associations between early-stage transcriptomic profiles and later-stage antibody responses for QIV; however, no such associations were observed for PCV13. Importantly, observed group differences arose not from altered immune modules but from differences in the magnitude of gene expression, paving the way for immune-boosting interventions to enhance early gene expression in at-risk populations.

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Senotherapeutic role of pemafibrate through autophagy/mitophagy regulation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Matsubayashi, S.; Ito, S.; Hosaka, Y.; Yoshida, M.; Kadota, T.; Hashimoto, M.; Hatano, S.; Maruyama, T.; Fujimoto, S.; Nishioka, S.; Inukai, S.; Fujita, Y.; Minagawa, S.; Hara, H.; Nakada, T.; Nakayama, K.; Ohtuska, T.; Kuwano, K.; Araya, J.

2026-09-02 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361865 medRxiv
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Inadequate autophagy promotes smoking-induced cellular senescence involved in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) pathogenesis. Transcription factor EB (TFEB) is a master regulator of the autophagy-lysosome axis. For the first time, we investigated the therapeutic potential of pemafibrate, a putative TFEB inducer. COPD lung epithelial cells showed reduced TFEB expression. Pemafibrate enhanced autophagy/mitophagy flux and restored lysosomal acidification observed during cigarette smoke (CS) extract exposure in human bronchial epithelial cells, resulting in reduced cellular senescence. TFEB knockdown demonstrated involvement of pemafibrate-induced TFEB in these effects. Pemafibrate induced TFEB expression, mitigated alveolar enlargement and airflow obstruction, and attenuated the CS-induced increase in static lung compliance in a long-term CS-exposed mouse model. It reduced the CS exposure-induced cellular senescence, possibly through autophagy/mitophagy, as suggested by bulk RNA sequencing of mouse lungs. A retrospective cohort study showed that patients given pemafibrate displayed attenuated FEV1.0 decline compared with those given bezafibrate or fenofibrate. In conclusion, pemafibrate is a promising therapeutic agent for COPD, potentially exerting its effects through the regulation of the TFEB-autophagy/mitophagy-lysosome axis.

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Psychosocial Stress and Allostatic Load Among Underrepresented Minority Women with Familial Cancer Risk

Shachar, E. K.; Haas, R.; Rodriguez, V. E.; Lester, J.; Siavoshi, M. A.; Kwan, L.; Niell-Swiller, M.; Spellman, P. T.; Boutros, P. C.; Chang, V. Y.; Karlan, B. Y.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361226 medRxiv
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Importance: Chronic stress may contribute to adverse health outcomes through cumulative physiologic dysregulation. Allostatic load (AL), a composite measure of multisystem physiologic burden, may capture biologic effects of structural, social, and psychosocial stress not reflected by self-reported measures. Objective: To evaluate racial and ethnic differences in AL among women with familial cancer risk and examine how socioeconomic status, psychosocial factors, clinical characteristics, and health behaviors contribute to variations in AL. Design: Cross-sectional study of underrepresented minority participants enrolled in the HERSTORY cohort from October 2023 through September 2025, with comparison participants from the UCLA ATLAS biobank. Setting: UCLA academic health system. Participants: The study included 303 racially and ethnically diverse female HERSTORY participants aged [≥]35 years with a family history of cancer and matched non-Hispanic White female ATLAS participants (n=709). Exposures: Race and ethnicity, age, neighborhood deprivation, cancer history and stage, depression, perceived stress, cancer worry, and physical activity. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was AL, calculated from cardiometabolic and organ-function measures. A secondary index incorporated race- and ethnicity-specific neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) derived from 326,826 women in the UCLA Health population. Multivariable regression models evaluated factors associated with elevated AL. Results: Compared with matched non-Hispanic White participants, Black and Asian/Pacific Islander HERSTORY participants had significantly higher AL after adjustment. Hispanic/Latina participants did not have significantly elevated AL. Older age, greater area-level socioeconomic deprivation, and depression were independently associated with higher AL. Prior cancer diagnosis, cancer worry and perceived stress were not significantly associated with AL, whereas regular physical activity was associated with lower AL. Among cancer patients, advanced stage was associated with greater AL. Conclusions and Relevance: This study demonstrates elevated AL among understudied racial/ethnic minority groups with familial cancer risk and identifies associations with neighborhood deprivation, depression, and physical activity. The association between cancer stage and AL suggests that physiologic stress may reflect variation in cancer burden. The lack of association with perceived stress and cancer worry further indicates that physiologic and self-reported psychosocial measures capture distinct dimensions of stress. The development of race/ethnicity-specific NLR thresholds derived from large population samples provide a benchmark for future studies.

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Risk-based vaccination reveals marked heterogeneity in the clinical benefit of PCV20.

Markovits, H.; Cohen, Y. J.; Grupel, D.; Goldstein, R.; Goldenstein, H.; Katz Hanein, N.; Razi, T.; Schonmann, Y.; Arbel, R.; Netzer, D.; Tsanani, S. E.; Yamin, D.

2026-09-03 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361811 medRxiv
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Pneumococcal vaccination of older adults is primarily guided by age and clinical eligibility, despite substantial variation in individual risk of severe pneumonia. Here, we used longitudinal electronic health records from 787,538 adults aged [≥]65 years to evaluate the real-world effectiveness of the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) and quantify clinical benefit according to baseline risk of pneumonia hospitalization. We developed and validated a machine-learning model using pre-PCV20 data to estimate individual 12-month hospitalization risk and integrated these predictions into a propensity score matching framework. Overall vaccine effectiveness against pneumonia hospitalization was 16.5% (95% CI, 10.6-22.1), but this population-level estimate masked substantial heterogeneity in clinical benefit. The 60% at lowest predicted risk, characterized by younger age and fewer pulmonary and other chronic conditions, showed no measurable reduction in hospitalization (VE, 3.1%; 95% CI, -14.4 to 18.0) and had an estimated 1-year number needed to vaccinate (NNV) of 7,423, compared with 184 and 115 in the intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively. These findings suggest that incorporating baseline risk into adult pneumococcal vaccination strategies could enable more targeted and potentially better-timed vaccination.

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Mapping the Health Burden of Neighbourhood Deprivation: Neurobiological Evidence Across the Life Span

Ebneabbasi, A.; Warrier, V.; Montagnese, M.; Romero Garcia, R.; Bethlehem, R. A. I.; Rittman, T.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361714 medRxiv
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Neighbourhood deprivation is one of the few potential policy-modifiable risk factors for psychiatric and neurological disorders, but the neurobiological pathways underlying these associations remain unclear. We investigated these relationships across three cohorts spanning the life span: the Healthy Brain and Child Development (HBCD) Study (n = 84, aged 0 to 4 weeks postnatal), the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (n = 4,792, aged 9 to 10 years), and the UK Biobank (UKB; approximately 500,000 adults, aged 44 to 87 years). Neighbourhood deprivation was associated with elevated disease risk, and individual lifestyle factors accounted for only a small fraction of this burden, indicating that the much larger residual effect reflects broader contextual characteristics of deprived environments rather than individual behaviours alone. Across all cohorts, greater deprivation consistently predicted lower cortical and subcortical brain volume, with effects detectable in early development and substantially stronger in adulthood. Across disorders, regional brain volume emerged as a consistent neuroanatomical mediator linking neighbourhood deprivation to neuropsychiatric disease. We further showed that deprivation preferentially affects brain regions intrinsically vulnerable to neuropsychiatric disorders. Spatial decoding analyses implicated dopaminergic and serotonergic neurotransmitter systems together with specific excitatory and inhibitory neuronal classes. Importantly, both the deprivation effects and their neuroanatomical mediation patterns were replicated across independent populations. Our study delivers a translational framework linking neighbourhood deprivation to brain health, which could inform public health policies and preventive interventions.

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Acute Protein Responses Control SARS-CoV-2-specific Neurocognitive and General Post-Viral Sequelae

Liou, T. G.; Andrews, R. J.; Bass, B. L.; Battey, H.; Buonfiglio, L. G. V.; Cahill, B. C.; Cox, J. E.; Gibson, S.; Hartsell, S. C.; Hatton, N.; Hazel, M.; Helms, M. N.; Jensen, J. L.; Kartsonaki, C.; Kupfer, J.; Li, Y.; Lopes, F. B. T. P.; Manuel, A.; Marchetti, M.; Marvin, J. E.; Middleton, E. A.; Mimche, P.; Packer, K. A.; Paine, R.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Sturrock, A. B.; Tandar, A.; Tarbet, B.; Ulrich, A.; Warner, D.; Warren, K.; Weis, A. M.; Zimmerman, E.; Yoon, S.; Ownbey, M.; Youngquist, S. T.; Adler, F. R.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361488 medRxiv
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Post-acute infection syndromes (PAIS) follow viral syndromes including post-acute sequelae of COVID19 (PASC) which complicates 10-25% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. These syndromes lack precise explanatory mechanisms. We studied 173 human saliva proteomes during respiratory viral syndromes, seeking associations between 44 clinically-relevant protein expression patterns and subsequent sequelae counts. Exploratory models adjusted by extensive clinical annotations found interactions between 23 acutely-responsive proteins and SARS-CoV-2 infection that inversely predicted subsequent neurocognitive sequelae. An overlapping 19 acutely-responsive proteins during any acute respiratory viral syndrome inversely predicted general fatigue-related sequelae. Altogether, 29 proteins, derived from interferon stimulated genes (ISG), were uniformly beneficial, including 13 predictive of both neurocognitive and general sequelae. The proteins suggested both shared early pathobiology and virus-specific protective responses that shaped resolution of acute disease and different PAIS. Acutely elevated protective ISG proteins associated with reduced post-viral symptoms identify investigational starting points for novel mechanisms, diagnostics and therapeutics for PASC and PAIS.

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Interventional Rescue Therapy for Delayed Cerebral Ischemia after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: 10-Year Experience

Kissling, C.; Petutschnigg, T.; Nasiri, D.; Goldberg, J.; Bervini, D.; Dobrocky, T.; Piechowiak, E. I.; Murek, M.; Müller, M. D.; Schucht, P.; Schefold, J. C.; Raabe, A.; Z'Graggen, W. J.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361378 medRxiv
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Background: Evidence regarding delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) remains sparse. We aimed to identify its predictors and occurrence and evaluate its role in ischemic stroke and functional outcome under treatment with interventional rescue therapy (IRT). Methods: This retrospective single-center study included 628 adults with aSAH from 2014?2023. The primary endpoint was occurrence of refractory DCI (= refractory despite induced hypertension) treated with at least one IRT. Multivariable models evaluated refractory DCI, new ischemic stroke, and poor functional outcome (mRS 3?6) at 6?12 months. Results: Among 628 included patients, 61 who died within 3 days were excluded from DCI analysis; 166/567 (29%) developed refractory DCI. Younger age (OR = 0.98; P<0.001), female sex (OR = 0.57; P=0.007), and higher WFNS grade (OR = 1.18; P=0.011) were independently associated with refractory DCI. Earlier first IRT was associated with longer DCI duration (IRR = 0.88; P<0.001) and more required IRTs (IRR = 0.91; P<0.001). IRT was performed later than day 14 in 29/166 patients (17.5%); none was older than 70 years. Refractory DCI was associated with new ischemic stroke (OR = 4.68; P<0.001) and poor functional outcome (OR = 2.37; P<0.001); earlier first IRT was associated with poor outcome within the refractory DCI subgroup (OR = 0.86; P=0.03). Outcomes after 1?2 IRTs did not differ from those without refractory DCI (P=0.4), whereas ?3 IRTs were associated with poor outcome (P=0.04). Conclusions: Refractory DCI affected 29% of aSAH patients, predominantly younger women and patients with poorer initial neurological status, and extended beyond day 14 in nearly 20% of affected patients, none of whom was older than 70 years. Refractory DCI and earlier onset were associated with poorer radiological and functional outcomes. The absence of a detected outcome difference after 1?2 IRTs suggests that favorable outcomes may remain achievable despite refractory DCI.

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Cost-Utility Analysis of First-Line Olaparib plus Abiraterone for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer in China after Volume-Based Procurement

SHI, J.; Gu, Q.; Pan, J.; Yang, A.; Fan, M.

2026-08-31 health economics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361314 medRxiv
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To evaluate the cost-utility and 5-year budget impact of first-line olaparib plus abiraterone versus abiraterone alone for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) in China after the eleventh round of volume-based procurement (VBP). The intention-to-treat (ITT) population was assigned primary decision-analytic weight; the prespecified BRCA1/2-mutated (BRCAm) subgroup was a supporting analysis.

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Urinary collagen type I degradation products as common fibrosis biomarkers in chronic diseases

Mina, I. K.; Hussain, Y.; Siwy, J.; Catanese, L.; Rupprecht, H.; Beige, J.; Staessen, J. A.; Metzger, J.; Persson, F.; Rossing, P.; Delles, C.; Schanstra, J. P.; Bannaga, A.; Vlahou, A.; Mischak, H.; Arasaradnam, R. P.; Latosinska, A.

2026-08-31 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361420 medRxiv
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Background: Fibrosis, characterised by excessive accumulation of collagen type I (COL1), is a common feature of chronic diseases, including liver diseases (LDs), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF). COL1 degradation products can be detected in urine by proteomics/ peptidomics analyses and may serve as non-invasive biomarkers of fibrosis. We aimed to identify a common molecular signature of fibrosis across these diseases that may ultimately guide interventions to slow disease progression and prevent organ damage. Methods: Using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS), naturally occurring COL1 degradation products (peptides) in the urine of patients with fibrotic disease, LDs (n=127), CKD (n=263) or HF (n=187), were investigated and compared with the same number of matched controls. Disease-associated COL1 peptides were identified separately for each condition, and peptides showing consistent associations across the three diseases were selected to define a common fibrosis signature. A support vector machine model based on the selected peptides was developed and validated in independent cohorts of patients with LDs (n=110), CKD (n=93), HF (n=32) and controls (n=643). Results: We identified a common fibrotic signature consisting of 50 COL1 degradation products, mainly downregulated in fibrosis. A model based on these peptides achieved a strong performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.935 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.917-0.953, p<0.0001) in an external validation cohort comprising pooled disease groups (LDs, CKD, and HF) and controls. Performance was maintained in LDs, CKD and HF, with AUCs of 0.917 (95% CI 0.890-0.944, p<0.0001), 0.951 (95% CI 0.931-0.971, p<0.0001) and 0.950 (95% CI 0.903-0.997, p<0.0001), respectively. The model scores were significantly associated with fibrosis stage in LDs (p=0.0097) and with interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy in CKD (p=0.045). Conclusion: A model of urinary COL1 peptides captures a shared collagen degradation signature across organs and diseases, enabling the non-invasive assessment of fibrosis irrespective of its origin. As these peptides exclusively reflect collagen degradation, the findings suggest impaired collagen degradation as a driver in fibrosis. Future clinical studies are warranted to evaluate the utility of this model for early fibrosis detection and earlier implementation of anti-fibrotic interventions.

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Paradoxical relief after seizures: a diagnostic signal distinguishing functional/dissociative from epileptic seizures

Masharani, A.; Koreki, A.; Marcelo, M.; Shalfrooshan, K.; Diamos, M.-A.; Santucci, C.; Pillai, K.; Bindman, D.; O'Sullivan, S.; Rugg-Gunn, F.; Sidhu, M.; Yogarajah, M.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26360607 medRxiv
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Objective: To determine whether paradoxical relief, feeling unusually better after a seizure compared to before it, is more common after functional/dissociative seizures (FDS) than epileptic seizures (ES), quantify its diagnostic accuracy, and explore its relationship with preictal symptoms. Methods: Consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary epilepsy unit for prolonged inpatient EEG monitoring underwent a structured clinical interview on admission, before final multidisciplinary diagnostic classification. Preictal dissociative and autonomic/somatic symptom burden was assessed using items adapted from established questionnaires. Diagnostic classification incorporated clinical history, seizure semiology, video electroencephalography findings, and collateral information. Patients with dual or indeterminate diagnoses were excluded. Associations with paradoxical relief were examined using logistic regression, followed by an exploratory mediation analysis. Results: Of 176 patients assessed, 66 with FDS and 65 with ES were included. Paradoxical relief was reported by 46/66 patients with FDS (69.7%) and 10/65 with ES (15.4%; unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 12.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.57 to 31.09). As a diagnostic signal for FDS, paradoxical relief had 69.7% sensitivity (95% CI 57.1 to 80.4), 84.6% specificity (95% CI 73.5 to 92.4), a positive likelihood ratio of 4.53 (2.51 to 8.19), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.36 (0.24 to 0.52). FDS diagnosis remained independently associated with paradoxical relief after adjustment (OR 10.59, 95% CI 3.42 to 38.06). In a parallel mediation analysis, dissociative symptom burden showed a significant indirect effect, accounting for 19.5% of the association between diagnostic group and relief, whereas the indirect effect through somatic/autonomic symptom burden was not significant. Significance: Paradoxical relief is substantially more common after FDS than ES and may provide a simple, clinically useful diagnostic signal. Its absence does not exclude FDS, and the finding requires external validation. The association with dissociative symptoms is exploratory and supports prospective investigation of whether relief reflects transient resolution of a disturbed, disembodied preictal state.

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Antiseizure Medication Administration Gaps Across the ICU-to-Floor Transfer: A Matched Within-Patient Comparison

Gorenshtein, A.; Adiniaev, Y.; Srour, A.; Klang, E.; Daniel, O.

2026-08-31 neurology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361462 medRxiv
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Objective: Whether a scheduled antiseizure medication (ASM) continues on schedule across the ICU-to-floor transfer has not been characterized. We quantified ASM administration-gap frequency across this transfer and compared it with gap frequency during matched non-transfer intervals in the same patient and drug. Methods: In this retrospective MIMIC-IV (version 3.1) cohort study, we identified epilepsy and status-epilepticus admissions with an ICU stay followed by floor transfer and a scheduled ASM order active at ICU departure. A gap was defined as an interval exceeding 1.5 times the expected dosing interval between the last ICU dose and first floor dose, or no further dose before discharge, and compared with a matched non-transfer control interval in the same patient and drug (paired McNemar test). A multivariable model evaluated six prespecified clinical predictors; sociodemographic variables were summarized descriptively. Results: Among 2,469 ASM transition-by-drug observations (1,583 admissions, 1,335 patients), an administration gap occurred in 251 (10.2%; 95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%). Gap frequency across the transfer exceeded frequency during matched non-transfer control intervals in the same patient and drug: a paired rate difference of 5.8 percentage points (95% CI, 4.4-7.1; 7.5% vs 1.7%; P = 7.3 x 10^-22) before the transfer and 6.4 percentage points (95% CI, 4.9-7.9; 8.9% vs 2.5%; P = 1.9 x 10^-23) after. Gap rates were similar for intravenous-available (9.9%) and oral-only (11.4%) drugs (rate difference, 1.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.6 to 4.5; P = .34). None of six prespecified predictors reached significance after correction. Significance: An antiseizure medication administration gap occurred in approximately 1 of every 10 drug-transition observations at the ICU-to-floor transfer, exceeding matched non-transfer gap rates by 5.8 to 6.4 percentage points. This transfer-associated excess, rather than any single medication or patient characteristic, supports a structured medication-continuity check.

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Integrating mouthguard kinematics, finite element brain strain, and plasma biomarkers to explore brain injury thresholds in collision sport

Hickey, J. W.; Chan, E. Y. K.; Evans, L. J.; O'Brien, W. T.; Xie, B.; Roberts, S. S. H.; Butler, S. E.; Ernst, J.; Zhou, W. J. Q.; Zimmerman, K. A.; Spitz, G.; Parker, T. D.; O'Brien, T. J.; Shultz, S. R.; Sharp, D. J.; Ghajari, M.; McDonald, S. J.

2026-08-31 sports medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360869 medRxiv
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Purpose: Identifying head impacts linked to brain injury in sport remains challenging. Instrumented mouthguards quantify head-impact kinematics, and finite element (FE) modelling can transform these data into brain strain estimates, which may better reflect injury risk than kinematics alone. Here, we examined associations between mouthguard-measured kinematics, FE-derived strain, and plasma brain injury biomarker GFAP following head impacts. Methods: We analysed 41 video-verified impacts from male Australian football players, including 22 assessed for concussion (17 diagnosed) and 19 unassessed. Instrumented mouthguards recorded peak linear acceleration (PLA), peak rotational acceleration, and peak rotational velocity (PRV). Brain strain was estimated using the Imperial College FE brain model, and plasma GFAP was quantified using Simoa. Biomechanical-GFAP associations were examined using Spearman correlations and segmented regression. Results: For impacts overall, plasma GFAP was moderately correlated with PLA ({rho}=0.46, 95% CI: 0.20-0.66), PRV ({rho}=0.53, 95% CI: 0.20-0.78), and strain ({rho}=0.60, 95% CI: 0.32-0.80). Associations were stronger within concussion cases for strain ({rho}=0.86, 95% CI: 0.58-0.97) and PRV ({rho}=0.64, 95% CI: 0.15-0.93). Piecewise regression identified strain levels above which strain-GFAP relationships steepened across the whole-brain and brainstem. In concussion cases, supra-threshold brainstem strain was associated with greater symptoms. Conclusion: Finite element brain strain may better predict brain injury risk following a sport-related head impact than peak acceleration metrics. Stronger associations with plasma GFAP, particularly among concussion cases, and evidence of a biomechanical threshold, support the use of biomarker-informed strain measures in future risk modelling and the development of brain injury screening thresholds.