Factors Associated with Divergent Introgression Outcomes from Wolbachia-Based Interventions in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Nelson, E.; Carcamo, P. M.; Ribeiro dos Santos, G.; Sylvestre Ribeiro, G.; Rodrigues da Costa, T.; Ilaria Dorigatti, I.; Salje, H.; Moreira, L. A.; Cummings, D. A. T.; Ko, A. I.
Show abstract
Wolbachia-based interventions were less effective in achieving introgression in Rio de Janeiro than other settings. Reduced introgression occurred in locations where dengue was historically high, raising concerns of inequity. We examined factors affecting Wolbachia introgression in Rio through trajectory modeling, spatiotemporal Bayesian models, and Ae. aegypti abundance estimation. During the intervention (2017-2020), Wolbachia introgression was 26% (median; IQR,14-44%), with four distinct trajectories. Despite receiving more releases, densely populated areas with low socioeconomic status had lower introgression. In spatiotemporally explicit multivariable regressions, higher Ae. aegypti abundance, temperature, population density and lower socioeconomic status were associated with reduced introgression. Improved characterization of Ae. aegypti abundance and other structural/environmental predictors of introgression could be used to calibrate release doses to ensure equitable benefits from Wolbachia interventions.
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