Tracheal Eccentricity is Associated with Respiratory Morbidity and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by airway remodeling, which may extend to the central airways and alter tracheal morphology. Whether tracheal shape relates to disease severity, quality of life, functional capacity, or survival is not established. Objective: To determine whether CT-derived tracheal lumen eccentricity is associated with cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical outcomes in COPD. Methods: We analyzed 8,383 participants from the multicenter COPDGene study. At each axial cross-section of the trachea, lumen eccentricity ({epsilon}) was computed from the major and minor axis lengths, and the participant-level value was taken as the arithmetic mean across all tracheal slices; {epsilon} = 0 denotes a circular lumen and values approaching 1 denote progressively elongated ellipses. Baseline outcomes were spirometry, 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score, and modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea score. Longitudinal outcomes were annualized change in FEV1 and all-cause mortality. Multivariable linear and Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for [age, sex, race, BMI, smoking status, pack-years, scanner model]. Results: Tracheal eccentricity rose monotonically with severity of airflow obstruction (0.60{+/-}0.07, 0.61{+/-}0.07, 0.62{+/-}0.07, 0.64{+/-}0.08, and 0.64{+/-}0.08 in GOLD stages 0 through 4, respectively). Higher eccentricity was independently associated with lower FEV1 ({beta} = -0.30 L, 95% CI -0.47 to -0.14; p < 0.001), lower FEV1/FVC ({beta} = -0.06, 95% CI -0.09 to -0.04; p < 0.001), shorter 6MWD ({beta} = -15.7 m, 95% CI -25.2 to -6.2; p = 0.001), higher SGRQ score ({beta} = 16.9, 95% CI 11.2 to 22.5; p < 0.001), higher mMRC dyspnea score ({beta} = 0.4, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.6; p = 0.007), and accelerated lung function decline ({beta} = -23.8 mL/year, 95% CI -45.13 to -2.48; p = 0.029). Eccentricity was also associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.26; p = 0.047). Conclusions: Tracheal lumen eccentricity is associated with worse quality of life, reduced functional capacity, accelerated lung function decline, and mortality in COPD, supporting central airway morphology as a candidate imaging biomarker.