In Silico Metrological Assessment of 2D ROI Sampling Error Versus Whole-Organ 3D Volumetric CT Attenuation in Hepatic Steatosis: A Multicenter Monte Carlo Simulation on 971 Scans

Purpose: To quantify the sampling error of conventional 2D regions of interest (ROIs) compared with whole-organ 3D volumetric CT attenuation for opportunistic hepatic steatosis screening, and to evaluate its dependency on intraparenchymal spatial heterogeneity. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective computational study (CLAIM-compliant), 971 abdominal CT scans were analyzed across a multicenter derivation cohort (TotalSegmentator v2, n = 841) and an external validation cohort (Medical Segmentation Decathlon Task03, n = 130). Automated 3D liver segmentation was performed using nnU-Net, followed by an 8-mm spherical 3D erosion to eliminate peripheral partial volume effects and major hilar vessels. Three clinical sampling paradigms (1, 3, and 5 axial 2D ROIs of 15 mm diameter) were modeled through 500 stochastic Monte Carlo iterations per scan (485,500 total simulations). Absolute sampling error (|Delta HU| = |HU_ROI - HU_3D|) and diagnostic misclassification rates at the standard <= 40 HU steatosis threshold were computed. Results: In the derivation cohort, the conventional 3-ROI approach yielded a mean absolute error of 6.61 +/- 7.83 HU (median: 2.92 HU), significantly underperforming compared to the 5-ROI strategy (5.21 +/- 6.00 HU; Wilcoxon paired test, p < 0.001) but improving on the single-ROI approach (11.32 +/- 14.16 HU; p < 0.001). Sampling error correlated strongly with parenchymal spatial heterogeneity (Pearson r = 0.850, 95% CI: [0.830-0.868], p < 0.001). In borderline attenuation zones (35-45 HU), diagnostic misclassification reached 45.2% in heterogeneous livers. Findings were corroborated on external validation, confirming the reproducible decay of sampling error (|Delta HU| = 7.38 HU for 1 ROI vs. 5.14 HU for 3 ROI, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Manual 2D ROI sampling exhibits an intrinsic metrological uncertainty exceeding clinically relevant thresholds (5 HU) in heterogeneous livers, misclassifying nearly half of borderline cases. Opportunistic screening requires fully automated 3D volumetric extraction embedded into clinical PACS workflows.