Trends in transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine vapor product use in the Rutgers Omnibus Study, 2022-2026

Introduction: Monitoring transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine vapor product (ENVP) use is important for understanding how marketplace and regulatory changes have affected product use patterns, but information from national surveys is often delayed by several years. Methods: The Rutgers Omnibus Study is a quarterly serial, rapid-response, web-based convenience survey. Using a Markov multistate transition model, we estimated transition rates and one-year transition probabilities between never, non-current, ENVP-only, cigarette-only, and dual use among 5,292 adults aged 18-45 who participated in at least two of Waves 1-16 (February 2022-February 2026), as well as overall transition hazard ratios by sex, age group, and race & ethnicity in a multivariable model. Results: About 40% of individuals using cigarettes (39.5%; 95% CI: 36.9-42.0) or ENVP (40.1%; 95% CI: 36.4-43.7), and 60% of those using both products (60.8%; 95% CI: 58.3-63.2) were predicted to remain in those states after one year. Female participants began using cigarettes from never use (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.44; 95% CI: 0.29-0.66) or non-current use (aHR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.48-0.88) at lower rates than male participants. Participants aged 35-45 years initiated ENVP-only use from non-current use (aHR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.23-0.51) at a lower rate than those aged 18-34 years. Compared to non-Hispanic White participants, non-Hispanic Black participants initiated ENVP-only use from never use at a higher rate (aHR 4.39; 95% CI: 2.09-9.25). Conclusion: Rapid response surveys can provide important preliminary information on tobacco use transition patterns while we wait for the slower release of nationally representative survey data.