Longitudinal White Matter Microstructure and Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk

Altered white matter microstructure, commonly indexed by fractional anisotropy (FA), has been reported in individuals at clinical high-risk of psychosis (CHR-P) across multiple white matter tracts. However, the relationship between these alterations and later transition to psychosis remains unclear. To address this gap, we investigated whether baseline and longitudinally updated FA measurements were associated with risk of transition to psychosis in a large cohort of individuals at CHR-P. We analysed diffusion tensor imaging data from N = 205 participants at CHR-P, 23 of whom developed psychosis within 3 years of follow-up. Data were collected at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Associations between global and tract-specific FA and transition risk were examined using Cox proportional hazards models of baseline data and longitudinally updated data. Point estimates were directionally consistent, with hazard ratios <1 for FA across all white matter tracts in both baseline and longitudinal models. Associations reached nominal significance in the hippocampal cingulum, anterior thalamic radiation, and forceps minor, but none of these remained significant after correcting for multiple comparisons (pcorr > .05). The directionally consistent estimates are compatible with small, distributed effects across multiple white matter pathways being associated with transition to psychosis, although this requires replication. Longitudinally updated FA measurements did not yield stronger associations than were available from baseline imaging data alone. Studies at an even larger scale are needed to establish whether these associations are robust and clinically meaningful.