Facility-level variation in HIV service delivery volumes before and after the 2025 PEPFAR funding cuts: a retrospective analysis of District Health Information System data in Zambia

Background The abrupt withdrawal and uneven restoration of United States PEPFAR support in 2025 disrupted HIV service delivery in aid-dependent countries worldwide. In Zambia, decreases in HIV service delivery have been documented at a national level, but variations by facility and by quarter have largely been masked by existing aggregate district- and province-level estimates. We examined facility-level variation in HIV service volumes delivered before and after the funding cuts. Methods We analysed monthly District Health Information System (DHIS2) data covering testing volumes, ART initiations, and numbers on ART for January 2024-December 2025) for two sets of facilities: 1) 24 selected SENTINEL network facilities across four provinces (Central, Copperbelt, Lusaka, and Southern); and 2) all facilities in two districts, Chongwe in Lusaka Province, which was supported by the U.S. CDC under PEPFAR, and Mpongwe in Copperbelt Province, which was supported by USAID under PEPFAR. For each facility, we calculated quarterly 2025:2024 ratios of service volumes and summarized quarterly and annual percentage changes in numbers of tests, treatment initiations, and clients on ART. Results Aggregate HIV testing volumes declined 18% in SENTINEL facilities from 2024 to 2025, with 17 of 24 facilities showing net annual decreases. Aggregate ART initiations declined 16%, with 23 of 24 facilities experiencing net decreases. For both indicators, variation between quarters and among individual facilities matched or exceeded aggregate changes. Numbers of clients currently on ART were comparatively stable, with only 6 facilities showing net declines exceeding 5%. District-level analyses showed divergent patterns. Net aggregate testing volumes increased by 7% in Chongwe District, but 28/39 facilities experienced quarterly declines exceeding 10% in at least one quarter and fell by 40% in Mpongwe District overall. Only 4 of 36 sites in Chongwe showed a net loss of clients over the course of 2025, with most experiencing gains, while Mpongwe experienced substantial variation by facility, with many having declines of >30% during some quarters and 14 of the 25 facilities suffering a net loss from 2024 to 2025. Conclusions Facility-level performance varied substantially within the same district following the 2025 PEPFAR funding disruptions, with some sites losing most of their service volumes while others remained stable or exceeded 2024 levels. These findings emphasize the need for facility-level monitoring to target recovery support where it is needed most.