Prediction of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Using Variational Autoencoder-Derived Features From 12-Lead ECG

BackgroundObstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a highly prevalent sleep disorder. Major risk factors include obesity, older age, and male sex. Given the well-established association between OSA and cardiovascular disease, markers of cardiovascular health derived from electrocardiography (ECG) may help identify individuals with undiagnosed OSA. This study evaluated whether 12-lead ECG features improve machine learning-based prediction of OSA beyond established clinical factors. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals who underwent diagnostic sleep studies at the University of Kansas Health System Sleep Disorders Center (2004-2025) and had a 12-lead ECG acquired within one year. Standard ECG features (intervals, amplitudes, voltage-time integrals, morphology descriptors) were extracted from the representative beat. Latent representations were derived using two variational autoencoder (VAE) models pretrained on >1 million ECGs: a 30-dimensional representative-beat VAE and a 90-dimensional full 10-second ECG VAE. Three LightGBM models were trained: clinical factors only (age, sex, weight, height, body mass index [BMI], Epworth sleepiness scale [ESS]), ECG features only, and a combined model. Feature selection and hyperparameter tuning were performed separately for each model within a 5-fold cross-validation scheme. The outcome was moderate-to-severe OSA (AHI[≥]15 events/h), evaluated by AUROC (bootstrapped 95% CI) in a 10% holdout test set. ResultsThe dataset included 7,699 individuals (52.2% women, mean age 58.0 {+/-} 14.2 years, BMI 33.6{+/-}8.2 kg/m{superscript 2}, ESS 8.8{+/-}5.1; 36.4% with moderate-to-severe OSA) Training AUROC (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.66-0.76) for the combined model, versus 0.65 (0.59-0.70) for the clinical-only model and 0.66 (0.61-0.72) for the ECG-only model. Holdout test AUROC was 0.78 (combined), 0.69 (clinical-only), and 0.71 (ECG-only). Feature importance identified age, BMI, weight, ECG VAE latent variables, height, sex, and P-wave voltage-time integral as relevant contributor to the predictions. ConclusionsLatent ECG features extracted by VAE improve prediction of moderate-to-severe OSA when combined with clinical factors.