Novel Entropy-Based Framework for Quantifying Dynamic Epistemic Uncertainty in Clinical Medicine
Yano, Y.; Shintani, E.; Arita, S.; Ashine, R.; Iinuma, N.; Mori, H.; Fujibayashi, K.; Yamada, Y.; Saita, M.; Nakashima, N.; Itoh, H.; Nangaku, M.; Ohashi, M.; Daida, H.; Arai, H.; Naito, T.
Show abstract
The widespread adoption of clinical large language models (LLMs) introduces significant risks of automation bias, premature closure, and clinician deskilling. Current interpretability paradigms, including latent space trajectories, Concept Activation Vectors, and Concept Bottleneck Models, suffer from topological stagnation, metric distortion, and epistemic occlusion, frequently masking intermediate diagnostic uncertainty behind falsely confident outputs. To address these structural vulnerabilities, this paper introduces a novel closed-loop, multi-agent framework designed to quantify and visualize dynamic epistemic uncertainty in clinical LLM reasoning. By coupling predictive Shannon entropy with non-linear Isometric Feature Mapping (ISOMAP), the architecture projects high-dimensional inference state vectors onto a calibrated two-dimensional latent space, thereby assigning a quantifiable thermodynamic energy state to the reasoning path to track diagnostic velocity, cognitive momentum, and trajectory efficiency across sequential diagnostic rounds. Pilot validation across representative emergency medicine scenarios demonstrated distinct topological and information-theoretic behaviors: unconfounded cases (cerebellar infarction) exhibited smooth geodesic progression toward the ground truth alongside monotonic Shannon entropy decay from 2.15 to 1.74; noisy environments with ambiguous findings (spontaneous pneumothorax) suffered from trajectory wandering, local minimum traps, and high sustained entropy (~2.41) due to insufficient repulsive weighting for negative evidence; and triage-conflicted cases (acute cholangitis) achieved precise geometric proximity to the true node but experienced top-1 rank stagnation because the model conflated acute severity triage (sepsis) with anatomical etiology. By rendering machine hesitation and cognitive divergence visually auditable before final diagnostic crystallization, this geometric-information framework enables dynamic trust calibration and human-AI co-regulation at the point of care while establishing a clear mathematical foundation for future architectural interventions, such as dual-channel safety decoupling and non-linear repulsive weighting. Moving forward, validating these architectural enhancements across large-scale electronic health record databases and prospective clinical trials will be essential to realize its full clinical utility, establishing a foundational blueprint for safe, transparent, and cognitively synergistic AI integration in future medical practice. By rendering the LLM's reasoning process visually auditable, this framework lays the groundwork for capturing and externalizing the clinician's own cognitive patterns within the AI, forming a coupled system. This enables the explicit visualization of cognitive gaps between physician hypotheses and AI inferences, transforming the interaction from simple answer-checking into a dynamic learning process for both human and machine that prevents diagnostic oversight. Ultimately, because the responsibility for final clinical decision-making remains with the human practitioner, this framework serves as a vital decision-support mechanism. Moving forward, validating these architectural enhancements across large-scale electronic health record databases and prospective clinical trials will be essential to realize its full clinical utility, establishing a foundational blueprint for safe, transparent, and cognitively synergistic AI integration in future medical practice.
Matching journals
The top 1 journal accounts for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Zero Shot Health Trajectory Prediction Using Transformer 94%
- Evaluating large language model workflows in clinical decision support: referral, triage, and diagnosis 93%
- Enhancing Privacy-Preserving Deployable Large Language Models for Perioperative Complication Detection: A Targeted Strategy with LoRA Fine-tuning 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- Modular Clinical Decision Support Networks (MoDN)—Updatable, Interpretable, and Portable Predictions for Evolving Clinical Environments 93%
- Collaborative intelligence in AI: Evaluating the performance of a council of AIs on the USMLE 91%
- Performance of Generative Pretrained Transformer on the National Medical Licensing Examination in Japan 90%
Similar papers in this journal
- Achieving Inclusive Healthcare through Integrating Education and Research with AI and Personalized Curricula 92%
- Pretrained Patient Trajectories for Adverse Drug Event Prediction Using Common Data Model-based Electronic Health Records 91%
- Extraction of Crohn's Disease Clinical Phenotypes from Clinical Text Using Natural Language Processing 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- Creating a computer assisted ICD coding system: performance metric choice and use of the ICD hierarchy 92%
- Predicting morbidity by Local Similarities in Multi-Scale Patient Trajectories 92%
- A methodology of phenotyping ICU patients from EHR data: high-fidelity, personalized, and interpretable phenotypes estimation 92%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.