A Simple Method to Distinguish Active and Inactive Aptamers by Analyzing the Ruggedness of the Aptamer Free Energy Landscape

Aptamers are structured nucleic acid ligands capable of high affinity, high specificity molecular recognition generated using variations of the SELEX (Systematic Evolution of Ligands by Exponential Enrichment) process. However, SELEX often produces sequences that enrich yet may lack binding efficacy. We propose a measure called the Ruggedness Composite Index (RCI) along with a method for computing it, that can be used to distinguish binding-competent ('active') aptamers from weak or non-binding ('inactive') aptamers. Given a set of aptamers, RCI incorporates information on their fragmentation (landscape partitioning), basin entropy (metastable state distribution), cumulative density irregularity (non-uniform occupancy), and structural energy correlation length (structure-energy coupling scale). We test whether secondary-structure folding energy landscape topology distinguishes active from inactive aptamers using a multiscale level set framework across six datasets. Active aptamers show lower RCI values and occupy smoother, funnel-like conformational spaces, while inactive aptamers show higher RCI values, reflecting fragmented, high-entropy landscapes. By contrast, classical thermodynamic features, such as minimum free energy, show limited discrimination between active and inactive aptamers. In all datasets, sequences that exhibit enrichment which is not monotonic but lack specificity exhibit elevated ruggedness, indicating landscape topology can predict non-specific enrichment. These results indicate that folding landscape organization can be used as a predictor of aptamer activity and establish RCI as a simple, mechanistically interpretable measure for improving candidate prioritization, especially in therapeutic aptamer discovery.