PMPNN-DDG: an accurate machine learning-based {triangleup}{triangleup}G prediction pipeline trained on a novel interpretable feature set extracted from ProteinMPNN

An accurate and tractable approximation of the single-point mutation-induced change in protein thermodynamic stability, denoted by DDG, is critical for understanding the genotype-phenotype relationship. Several computational methods have been proposed for this problem; however, limited and error-prone training data and the difficult-to-predict magnitude of structural perturbations make this a challenging task. Consequently, the computational predictors proposed throughout the past decade incrementally improved prediction performance by proposing novel features, combining existing features, task-adapted neural network architectures, loss functions, data augmentation techniques, and pre-training procedures. In this work, we propose PMPNN-DDG, a Random Forest-based DDG prediction model, trained on a novel set of interpretable features extracted from the recently proposed message-passing neural network-based fixed backbone protein design model, ProteinMPNN. On the S669 independent test set, PMPNN-DDG achieves rF +R = 0.64 and RMSE = 1.45, outperforming all compared baseline methods across the reported evaluation measures. On the Ssym independent test set, it achieves rF +R = 0.81, rF -R = -0.99, and RMSE = 1.10, showing competitive performance relative to the compared baselines. PMPNN-DDG is publicly available at https://github.com/dRanger666/PMPNN-DDG.