Label-Free Threshold Selection for Out-of-Distribution Detection in Liver CT Segmentation

Reliable clinical deployment of automated liver segmentation requires mechanisms for detecting failures in rare and previously unseen scenarios. Achieving this goal requires an appropriately calibrated threshold that converts an out-of-distribution (OOD) score into a failure prediction. However, threshold calibration typically relies on expert-labeled failures, creating a substantial annotation burden when failures are rare. Building upon our prior work, which uses Pairwise Surface DSC scores as indicators of segmentation quality, we propose a label-free framework for calibrating OOD score thresholds. First, we fitted a log-t distribution to Pairwise Surface DSC scores from a validation set of 400 internal scans to approximate an in-distribution score distribution. New segmentations were assigned significance scores based on their extremity under this fitted distribution and categorized into Low, Medium, and High Risk review groups using statistically principled cutoffs of 0.25 and 0.05. The fitted log-t distribution provided a strong fit to the observed scores and remained robust to moderate contamination by OOD cases. On an independent test set of 500 internal and external scans, the combined Medium and High Risk categories achieved 100% sensitivity and 79% specificity, whereas the High Risk category alone achieved 78% sensitivity and 96% specificity. These results indicate that clinically meaningful failure detection can be derived from unlabeled data. Our code is available at https://github.com/marshalln7/Label_Free_OOD_Threshold_Selection.