The relationship of genetic diversity and inbreeding to extinction risk across over 500 vertebrate diploid genomes

Genetics may help address the biodiversity crisis by providing information about genetic diversity and temporal changes in demography for species of interest. Advances in whole-genome sequencing create new opportunities for demographic analysis, even based on the two copies of a genome found in a single diploid individual. The Vertebrate Genomes Project (VGP) is generating high-quality, chromosome-level reference genomes across the full range of extant vertebrate species, with its first phase delivering assemblies spanning approximately 95% of vertebrate orders. Using 512 diploid VGP genomes, we quantified intra-species heterozygosity, runs of homozygosity (ROH), and inferred past effective population sizes (Ne) with the Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC). Threatened species are more likely to exhibit lower heterozygosity and longer ROH, though there is large variation in both measures across all IUCN categories. Interestingly, PSMC suggests that estimated historical Ne several thousand generations ago is a better predictor of threatened status than the present day estimate. Co-analysing with life history traits, we found that marine species tend to have lower ROH content, while fossorial species show significantly higher inbreeding levels. Indeed, habitat and foraging strata are much stronger predictors of IUCN status than genetics, with estimated historical Ne providing a small but significant amount of additional information. Together, these results suggest that, while measures of genetic diversity are correlated with IUCN status, much of that correlation may derive from ecological factors such as habitat, with only a relatively small direct contribution. Nevertheless, reference genomes like those generated by the VGP can yield valuable information, like historical Ne, while facilitating population monitoring and management for species of interest.