Forensic investigative genetic genealogy match rate estimated from a nation-wide population register

Forensic investigative genetic genealogy (FIGG) is a revolutionary method in forensic genetics, whereby genetic relatives of an unknown target person are detected in direct-to-consumer genomic databases; the family trees of these relatives are then reconstructed to suggest candidates for the target person. Despite recent successes, the full potential of the technology has not yet been systematically evaluated at the scale of an entire country. To estimate the proportion of FIGG cases where a genetic relative is detected in the database (the "match rate"), we used the Israeli population register, covering all past and present citizens. After extensive quality control, the register included 12.4 million individuals, among them 10.4 million alive. We simulated genomic databases by randomly selecting subsets of predefined sizes of the live adult population. With a database covering 1% of the population, we estimate that FIGG would detect at least one relative of fifth degree (e.g., a second cousin) or closer for about 25% of the population, and at least two relatives for 9% of the population. A database covering 5% of the population would find at least one relative of third degree (e.g., a first cousin) or closer for half the population. More distant relatives are rarely identified in the register, likely due to its limited time depth. Our results provide the first country-wide direct estimates for the utility of FIGG in generating investigative leads.