Mortality in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Population-Based Survey Following the 2025 M23 Offensive and Humanitarian Funding Withdrawal

Introduction: In early 2025, North and South Kivu Provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) underwent a major geopolitical shift marked by the concurrent abrupt withdrawal of humanitarian support and large-scale military takeover by the M23 armed group. This study sought to quantify mortality before and after the humanitarian and security collapse. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, two-stage cluster household survey comparing mortality in the pre- and post-crisis periods. Difference-in-differences were analyzed using survey-weighted Poisson regression with a log-link and person-time offset to estimate adjusted incident rate ratios for crude, under-five, and sex-specific mortality. We interviewed community leaders and health facility staff as key informants to provide qualitative data. Results: The adjusted risk of death was 2.02 times higher in the post-crisis than the pre-crisis period (95% CI 1.07, 3.80; p=0.03). Crude mortality rose from a pre-crisis adjusted marginal mean of 0.38 (95% CI 0.22, 0.53) to 0.74 (95% CI 0.56, 0.92) deaths/10,000/day. The increase in mortality was consistent across DRC-Government and M23 controlled areas. Results indicate that 165,391 (95%CI: 63,557, 267,225) excess deaths occurred in the post-crisis period, equating to 245,397 annual excess deaths. Conclusion: The crisis in DRC is driven by the convergence of humanitarian funding withdrawals and escalating conflict. Averting further preventable deaths requires large-scale restoration of humanitarian assistance. The resources needed to do so represent a small fraction of global economic capacity.