Response diversity inconsistently predicts functional robustness to simulated zooplankton extinctions

1Ecosystem functioning can be maintained in species-rich communities even under fairly severe perturbations. This is because communities with high richness include variation both in species functional roles (functional diversity) and in their responses to environmental changes (response diversity). Response diversity has been proposed as a key mechanism underpinning the stabilising role of biodiversity in variable environments. However, less understood is the role of response diversity in stabilising communities against perturbations and thus preserving ecosystem function. Here, we employ community data from 76 reservoirs across the broad latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago to show that zooplankton assemblages with higher variability in responses to environmental variables can retain functional diversity as species are removed, but that the result depends on the variable examined. We combine empirically derived occurrence data for 47 zooplankton species with biotic and abiotic variables in a joint species distribution model to derive species-specific environmental responses, then measure response diversity to environmental axes including fish community structure and water temperature. We also measure functional trait diversity of zooplankton assemblages and simulate sequential species extinctions, capturing the extinction thresholds beyond which half the functional diversity is lost. Finally, we combine these data streams to show that response diversity can predict higher functional robustness in zooplankton assemblages, but not consistently. The role of response diversity in predicting functional robustness was contingent on the specific metric and environmental variable considered. We found that a balance of positive and negative species responses to water temperature was a significant predictor of robustness, though other metrics and environmental variables mainly yielded non-significant relationships. Overall, we show that response diversity can confer stability to perturbations such as species extinctions, and we demonstrate the utility of species distribution models for measuring response diversity, overcoming mechanistic data limitations and expanding the toolkit available for studying response diversity in natural systems.