Vegetation and fires under climate change: a Mediterranean modelled case study from central Italy

Wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes are undergoing significant changes due to the combined effects of land-use transitions and climate change. In particular, land abandonment increased fuel availability, the expansion of the wildland-urban interface increased ignition frequency, while climate change increases the chances of fire-weather conditions and reduces vegetation recovery capacity. This study presents a modelling framework to investigate the coupled dynamics of fire and vegetation under different fire regimes scenarios, using a case study in central Italy (Monte Pisano). The approach integrates two cellular automata models for vegetation dynamics (Batllori et al., 2017) and for fire-spread (PROPAGATOR; Trucchia et al., 2020). The vegetation model represents succession among six functional classes, including grasslands, shrubs, and trees with different fire-response strategies (seeders and resprouters), while explicitly accounting for post-fire recovery processes. The model was calibrated for the area using historical fire perimeters and vegetation maps over 40 years. Fire spread is simulated probabilistically using PROPAGATOR, driven by fuel types, topography, and weather conditions. A stochastic coupling was implemented by sampling fuel classes from vegetation composition, and by feeding simulated burned areas back into the vegetation model, thus enabling dynamic fire-vegetation feedback. Future wildfire scenarios are constructed by linking ignition probability to fire-weather conditions derived from historical reanalysis data (1981-2023). Extreme fire events are defined based on thresholds of wind speed and fuel moisture, and their probability of occurrence is varied across scenarios to represent increasing climate-driven risk. Simulations are performed over a 100-year horizon starting from current vegetation conditions. Results show that, in the absence of fire, vegetation dynamics lead to dominance of late-successional, fire-resilient species (resprouters). This is particularly evident for low probabilities of extreme fire events, with fire impacts diminishing over time as landscapes become less flammable. However, increasing the frequency of extreme fire conditions resulted in persistent disturbance, maintaining higher proportions of shrubs and early successional vegetation, and sustaining elevated burned areas over time. Overall, the study shows that coupling fire spread and vegetation dynamics provides a useful framework for exploring long-term ecosystem trajectories under climate change. The results highlight the critical role of extreme fire events in shaping landscape resilience and suggest that future management strategies should account for fire-vegetation feedbacks to support more stable and less fire-prone ecosystems.