Polysubstance Injection and Smoking Trajectories of Unregulated Drug Use in the San Diego-Tijuana Border Region: A Latent Transition Analysis

Background and Aims: The North American overdose crisis is increasingly characterized by complex polysubstance use alongside a transition from injecting to smoking unregulated opioids. However, transitions involving multiple substances remain understudied. We characterized longitudinal transitions in the route of administration and frequency of heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine use and examined whether these transitions differed by multilevel factors hypothesized to influence patterns of polysubstance use and routes of administration over time. Design: People who inject drugs (PWID) enrolled in a cohort study completed baseline surveys (October 2020-2021) and three biannual follow-up visits (through April 2023). Setting: San Diego, California, and Tijuana, Baja California. Participants: Among 612 PWID, median age was 43 years; most were male (74%), Hispanic, Latino, or Mexican (72%), and San Diego residents (67%). Measurements: Based on past six-month substance use behaviors reported at each visit, we categorized participants according to six indicators over time: low- (< weekly) and high-frequency ([&ge;] weekly) smoking and injecting of heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine. We then used latent transition analysis (LTA) to identify distinct subgroups of participants with respect to these indicators at baseline and examine transitions between them over 18 months. We fit models with 2-5 subgroups, selecting the final model based on fit and interpretability and used multiple-groups LTA to examine differences in subgroup transitions by multilevel factors. Findings: We identified four subgroups: Subgroup 1 (Heroin-Methamphetamine Polyroute), characterized by high-frequency heroin and methamphetamine smoking and injection, included 22% of participants at baseline but 0% at 18 months. Subgroup 2 (Methamphetamine-dominant Smoking), characterized by high-frequency methamphetamine smoking, accounted for 14% of participants at baseline and 18 months. Subgroup 3 (Fentanyl-Methamphetamine Smoking), characterized by high-frequency fentanyl and methamphetamine smoking, included 4% of participants at baseline and 21% at 18 months. Subgroup 4 (Heroin-dominant Injecting), characterized by high-frequency heroin injection, included 61% of participants at baseline and 65% at 18 months. Participants in Subgroup 1 primarily transitioned to Subgroups 3 and 4 over time. Larger increases in Subgroup 3 prevalence occurred for participants who, at baseline, experienced homelessness, resided in San Diego (vs. Tijuana), received syringes from a syringe services program, and overdosed in the past six months. Conclusions: PWID in this region increasingly transitioned from high-frequency heroin and methamphetamine injection toward fentanyl and methamphetamine smoking, likely reflecting shifts in drug availability. Results highlight the need for multilevel interventions that address health harms resulting from polysubstance smoking alongside continued injection.